Wolf Street Report: How Even Low Interest Rates Screw Up the Economy

Interest rates don’t even have to be negative to make a mess in the era of “Secular Stagnation.”

- Source, The Wolf Report

Reinhart Says Full Argentine Default Is Just a Matter of Time

To Carmen Reinhart, an Argentine default is all but inevitable -- and will likely come sooner rather than later.

The Harvard University economist says the government’s re-profiling plan is already a default on domestic debt, which rating companies will likely promptly respond to. While asking bondholders for more time doesn’t configure a default on its foreign obligations, it would be “a miracle if they get to six months.”

“You have the combination of political turmoil, a contracting economy, no access to private capital markets, the serious onset of domestic capital flight and extreme reliance on the IMF, which may not be sufficient to cover their debts coming due,” she said in an interview. “That’s pretty grim.”

Back in November, the Cuba-born economist -- who was also deputy director of the IMF’s research department during Argentina’s 2001 crisis -- warned that rising U.S. interest rates, slower Chinese growth and potential defaults put more stress on the developing world. At the time, she called Argentina “the weakest of the set,” saying the South American country had little margin “for any kind of error or negative surprises.”

By Reinhart’s count, Argentina has defaulted on its foreign debt eight times since 1800.

- Source, Investing.com

Financial Expert: How High Can Gold and Silver Really Go?

Gold is going a lot higher from current levels, and the momentum in gold-backed ETF inflows offers support, this according to George Milling-Stanley, Chief Gold Strategist at State Street Global Advisors. 

“If you remember the last time we had significant speculative money coming into the market was as long ago as 2011, and speculative money flows drove the price up $500 in just 9 months. I could easily see something like that happening again,” Milling-Stanley told Kitco News.

- Source, Kitco News

Do We Really Have A Strong Economy, Or Is It Just An Illusion?

Is the US economy really as strong as we're being told it is, or is the strength of the US economy an illusion?

- Source, Silver Doctors

Daniel Ameduri: I Personally Think Gold Will go to $2000 this Year

Daniel feels that we are looking at another move higher in gold, but general investors haven't started buying. A brief pullback into the fourteen hundreds is possible, but we could easily be looking at $2000 gold by the end of the year. We should be in for a good bull market run as it appears that the smart money and institutions are getting involved.

- Source, Palisade Radio

Gary Shilling: Why We are Already in a Recession

Even though this quote is attributed to John Maynard Keynes, it was actually Gary Shilling who was the first known user of it in print. The president of A. Gary Shilling & Co has enjoyed a long and storied career in finance. 

And in this interview with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison, he takes us back to the days of fixed commissions on Wall Street as stagflation became entrenched. Shilling also talks at length about why he thinks a recession has just started, making Treasuries still the asset class to own. 

But as he looks forward, Shilling also sees a bright future of technological advancement, productivity growth and above-trend economic growth.

- Source, Real Vision Finance

Michael Oliver Provides His Thoughts on Gold and Other Important Markets

Jay introduces the guests and sponsors for the day’s program and Michael Oliver passes along his latest thoughts on gold and other important markets.

- Source, Jay Taylor Media

Recession Watch: Is a US Recession Coming?

Due to the precarious construction of the recent economic expansion, the resulting damage of a recession could be unusually devastating. In this deep-diving presentation, Raoul Pal presents many specific indicators of weakness, speaks to the potential market impact, and explains how a “doom loop” could quickly take matters from bad to catastrophic. 

He also suggests steps that savvy investors could take to prepare themselves. Finally, he previews some of the conversations he plans to have over the next two weeks on Real Vision, as he seeks to better understand both the current risks and the potential opportunities. Filmed on July 8, 2019 in New York.

- Source, Real Vision Finance

Ron Paul: Surviving The Great Inflation, The Fed Must Go

No matter where you look, the desire for the Fed to print, Print, PRINT, is intense! 

The president wants it, the Socialists want it, debtors want it...

The consequences of this madness are more than predictable. Great Inflation awaits, and the only thing that stands in the way is an amount of time that no one can precisely predict. 

The Fed must go! Sound money needs to be ushered in.

- Source, Ron Paul

Gold Price Will Hit $3,000 Once This Happens...

Jim Willie says the US bond market is the problem, and the cabal is funneling investors directly into it. Gold & silver are on the move because of this, but once a couple of certain things happen in the bond market, gold and silver are really going to take off!

- Source, Silver Doctors

Gold Has Been Weaponized, Central Bank System Pushed To The Extreme

The Chinese are devaluing their currency to combat the tariffs that Trump placed on them. Trump calls out the Fed and says we need to do more, we need more rate cuts. 

Trump is now pushing the [CB] economy to the extreme, the question is why, a crisis will allow Trump to usher in a new economy. While all this is happening gold is skyrocketing, its almost as if this was planned.

- Source, X22 Report

The Biggest Bubble in the World Keeps Getting Bigger

Silver Fortune: $17 Silver and $1500 Gold, Look Out

Golden Rule Radio: Currency War With China, Game On!

Currency War With China… Game On! Central Banks Urgently Accumulate Gold - 50 Year Demand High. Trump Tweets Tariffs… 

China Tweets Devaluation. Hong Kong Protestors Use Lasers To Block Facial Recognition. Thanks for listening to this week's McAlvany Commentary. 

The objective of McAlvany Weekly Commentary is to provide investors with valuable monetary, economic, geopolitical and financial information that cannot be found on Wall Street. 

As a listener, each week you’ll enjoy relevant discussions from David and a revolving cast of internationally-renowned economists, authors, and financial advisors. 

As an investor, you will be given a solid strategy of wealth preservation for your financial and retirement assets, and gain insight into better navigating our uncertain world and unstable economy.

- Source, Golden Rule Radio

ECB dragging us deeper into madness

The European Central Bank will doubtless cut its overnight deposit rate even deeper than the current -0.4 per cent at its next meeting in September. That doesn't mean it's the right way to try to breathe life into the euro zone economy. It might just make things worse.

By the time the ECB's governing council gets around to making the cut official, it's highly likely that the benchmark yield on 10-year German bonds will already be deeper in negative territory than the central bank's deposit rate. HSBC analysts reckon 10-year bunds will end 2019 at a mind-boggling -0.8 per cent. You now have to pay to hold any kind of German debt from the shortest maturities right out to three decades.

Given the expectation of the ECB cut, it's no surprise that traders are pricing in more stimulus. But we're entering dangerous territory here, not least because the plunge in yields is also dragging down long and ultra-long maturity bonds. There's something seriously wrong in the euro area when lending money to Austria for 100 years produces an annual return of about 75 basis points.

That longer duration bonds are behaving like this isn't just a concern for yield-starved bond investors, it also represents a potentially critical problem for the real economy. That's because it removes the incentive for the finance industry to take risk: If lending overnight yields only slightly less - or sometimes even more - than lending for longer-term investment, then why bother extending credit?

German debt already yields more for three-month paper than it does three-year bonds, a phenomenon known as an inverted yield curve. Such inversions usually indicate a recession is headed our way, but they can actually cause recessions too if they're prolonged. They create a disincentive to invest if the so-called "time value of money" (the higher cost that debt issuers usually pay for borrowing longer) stays reversed for a protracted period.

The recent plunge in yields in the 10-year to 30-year range is the really scary bit of this phenomenon and is the last domino to fall. The longest maturity debt is falling in yield faster than shorter-dated bonds. The traditional yield curve, where interest rates rise as durations get longer, is imploding...

- Source, Business Times

A Huge Bull Move for Gold Over the Next 5 to 10 Years

David discusses some of the unique things that are currently happening in the gold markets. 

European institutions are investing in gold since they can now get better returns than from negative-yielding bonds. 

Gold stocks have yet to move since most investors are complacent from the current bull market in equities. 

When the equity markets roll over in the next year or so you will see a large rally in gold stocks. Now is the time to look for value investments and to understand the psychology of markets.

- Source, Palisade Radio

Big Moves In Gold & Silver Markets: Gold Breaks $1500

Big Moves In Gold & Silver Markets - Gold Breaks $1500 and silver soars as the bull market pushes the prices higher. 

After the tumultuous week in the DOW it is clear that last week's Fed Rate Cut has left a lot of uncertainty for both wall street and Washington as to the next steps for the economy. 

We cover the price movements of the precious metals markets including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium.

- Source, Golden Rule Radio

Doug Casey: America is on the Cusp of a Civil War

The U.S. political landscape has never been as divided as now, and with the 2020 presidential elections coming up, we look back at founder of Casey Research, Doug Casey’s comments on what consequences bipartisan Washington has on the economy.

- Source, Kitco News

Catherine Austin Fitts: Financial Calamity an Ongoing Process

Investment advisor and Former Assistant Secretary of Housing Catherine Austin Fitts says forget about the notion of a coming economic meltdown, we are already living in an unfolding financial calamity, now. 

Fitts explains, “The likely financial calamity is an acceleration of the ‘slow burn.’ It’s not that the stock or bond market comes apart. It is that the stock and bond market continue to be subsidized by liquidating all sorts of people, animals and living resources. In other words, we are liquidating all of life. 

To engineer central control, we are levering up the debt, and we are liquidating people and countries and things to basically keep that game going while somebody is walking off with tremendous amounts of money that they used to engineer central control. So, we have had an ongoing calamity since the mid 1990’s, serious financial calamity. 

If you are the people of Libya, you have already had your financial calamity. Calamity is not a big bang that we all experience together. We almost got ours in 2008 and 2009. Calamity is an ongoing process. Some are composed so others can live.”

- Source, USA Watchdog

FED Cuts Rates... And Wall Street STILL Wants More

FED Cuts Rates... And Wallstreet Wants More - How Did Gold & Silver React? We cover the reactions of the rate cut in regards to the US Dollar index, equities markets, President Trump, platinum, palladium, & more. 

Wallstreet is now asking for further rate cuts as is President Trump. Will Jerome Powell and the FED continue to cut rates as a push towards negative interest rates in Europe becomes a reality?

- Source, Golden Rule Radio

Doug Casey: Gold is Going Higher, We are in Another Bull Market

Doug has always been self-directed and self-educated and would look for entrepreneurial things to do even when as a child. That is when he became interested in paleontology which led him into rocks, minerals and eventually mining. 

Resource stocks and gold are currently very much unloved and that is good because they are cheap and under-owned. Doug is currently gold bull since "all of the currencies of the world are just floating abstractions issued by bankrupt governments for political purposes."

- Source, Palisade Radio

Trump Considers Devaluing Dollar: Elites Buy Gold Hand Over Fist

Chinese US Trade War Propels Gold Higher, Haven Appeal Increases

Gold’s haven appeal lifted prices for the precious metal Friday, sending it higher for the week, a day after President Donald Trump intensified a trade fight with China by announcing additional tariffs on Chinese goods.

Gold for December delivery GCZ19, +1.50% on Comex rose $18.90, or 1.3%, to $1,451.30 an ounce, with prices trading more than 2% higher than the most-active August contract settlement a week ago.

September silver SIU19, +0.37% was up by a penny, or nearly 0.1%, at $16.19 an ounce, though still set to post a loss of mover 1% for the week.

Gold saw some volatility in the wake of the monthly U.S. jobs data, jumping higher, then briefly dipping toward session lows before recovering again. The Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 164,000 jobs in July, not far off the consensus forecast of 171,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%.

Separately, the University of Michigan said the final reading of its consumer-sentiment index for July was 98.4, up from 98.2 in June.

On balance, the latest jobs data aren’t likely to have any effect on the Federal Open Market Committee decision making, said analysts at ICICI Bank. “The FOMC’s concern pertains to the external environment, particularly related to ‘trade-policy’,” and with Trump announcing new tariffs “downside risks to the outlook on the economy have increased.”

- Source, Market Watch

Craig Huey: The Deep State, Who Really Runs America?

Craig Huey, gives his definition of the “Deep State” from his most recent book titled, “The Deep State: 15 Surprising Dangers You Should Know.”

- Source, Jay Taylor Media