Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Doug Casey: You Can Run But You Can't Hide

Doug Casey, outspoken analyst on an expansive range of world and economic affairs, best-selling author of “Crisis Investing,” “Strategic Investing,” “Speculator,” and “Drug Lord,” and founder of InternationalMan and CaseyResearch, visits Finance and Liberty to share his thought-provoking views.

Monday, November 11, 2019

Behold the Gift of Gold...

"Where do you see Gold finishing the year?" Directed at yours truly came that question from across the square table at last Sunday's Investors Roundtable, the price of Gold then at 1517. The instinctive response with nary a thought (which is said to be the hallmark of a good trader and by our experience works some 50% of the time) was "Probably right about in here."

Not to have taken the wind out of the sails (let alone wiped drool off the lips) from those wanting to have instead heard the bandied-about figure of "1600", but 'tis what 'tis. We then lightly elaborated upon that which you valued readers have already come to know these many weeks: that subsequent to Gold having achieved our "aggressive" forecast high for this year of 1526 back on 12 August, (from which there were two swiftly-failed follow-throughs to the mid-1500s), price has been fairly range-bound, indeed congested throughout, within the high-1400s to low-1500s. You can see that by price's track in the above Gold Scoreboard ... until this week's lurch lower.

'Course with seven full trading weeks still remaining in 2019, the return toward our so-called "centerpiece price" of 1526 not only is viable but we think likely. In fact, this lurch lower -- which found Gold settling out the week yesterday (Friday) at 1460 -- one might regard as anticipated, healthy, and finally as having happened.

You know where we're going with this but 'tis worth the repeat. And to put it in visual context, let's go straightaway with Gold's weekly bars from one year ago-to-date:

The now eight-week run of parabolic Short trend per the rightmost red dots kicked into lower gear back on 20 September. Since such date, you've herein regularly read of the 1454-1434 pricing area referred to as a support shelf -- its lavender rectangle added to the above graphic -- which Gold could well test during this parabolic Short trend. Recall, too, that 1434 had initially been our "conservative" forecast high for this year (achieved pre-dawn on 25 June whilst we were wifi'ing in Terminal 2 at Aeroport Nice Côte d'Azur) from which price then floundered about for better than a month toward creating a resistance area before breaking out higher to 1526 . And you know the old tried-and-true traders' saying: resistance becomes support which is how we now view the 1454-1434 zone, Gold this past week coming within a whisker of testing it by trading down yesterday to as low as 1457.

Will the 1454-1434 support shelf stick? We ought think so. As of a week ago, Gold had been putting in its best year (+18%) since 2010 (+29%), but with this lurch lower is now tied with 2017's full-year performance 'round +14%. Still, there's no fundamental nor technical rationale to throw the baby out with the bathwater: markets ebb as well as flow. And per last week's missive, we're now working through Gold's "No-Go" from which we 'spect we'll move toward year's-end with "Go-Go" back up into the 1500s. But should 1434 materially fail, please have Santa present us with a dunce cap for Christmas. And better as a gift to yourself, this support shelf -- as we always caution given prudent cash management -- appears as a nice price area to buy Gold.

One might even dub Gold's having pulled in its reigns of late as "the pause that refreshes". For in next looking to our graphic of Gold's daily closes since the highest ever at 1900 back in 2011, price upon embarking from our old nemesis "The Box" (1240-1280) this past June pretty much has gone straight up the lift shaft to now dawdle about, (just below the 1541 blue line from which the weekly parabolic trend would flip from Short to Long were that price remotely to be reached in the new week). But in looking at Gold per this broader context, 'tis been one heckova great run of late. Moreover, as that horizontal blue line mathematically moves lower week-by-week, such parabolic flip back to Long is certainly in play before the year is out, (barring the baby with the bathwater being thrown out):

'Course, 'tis all about riding the complacency wave of stocks. After all, they only go up, the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs in six of the past ten trading days. Even though the Federal Open Market Committee members are shying away from further rate allay. Even though with most constituents having reported their Q3 earnings, only 62% have beaten the like quarter of a year ago. Even though the mighty Index's "live" price/earnings ratio as honestly calculated is 33.5x. Even though the Economic Barometer -- which did have a better week -- nonetheless broadly has been working lower. Here's the Baro (blue line) year-over-year with the S&P (red line) wandering -- no, "rocketing" -- into deep space:

Yes, there were a few shining bulbs from the week just past: The Institute for Supply Management's October Services reading ticked higher for just the fourth month of this year's ten; and the Trade Deficit was reduced in September as were Wholesale Inventories; all good, that. BUT: Mr. Stagflation reared his ugly head in Q3 as Unit Labor Costs rose +3.6% -- the most since Q2 for 2016 -- and Productivity fell -0.3%, the largest drop since that same Q2 back in 2016. And following those like 2016 reports, the S&P then slumped -5% that year from August through October. Just sayin'...

- Source, deMeadville, read the full article here

How Much Lower Will Silver and Gold Go?

One of the worst weeks in recent memory for silver and gold... But how much further will it go?

Sunday, November 10, 2019

The Real Drivers Behind Higher Gold Prices Are Yet to Come

Ballooning debt has not yet exploded, and the debt to GDP ratio keeps expanding, and this eventually will drive gold prices much higher than current levels.

“There are a lot of catalysts that have pushed gold to where they are now. We broke through that $1,400 ceiling and now the $1,400 seems to be the floor,” Clark told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Silver and Gold Summit in San Francisco. 

“It’s not surprising that gold came a little weaker recently, but when you think about it, the big catalysts that are out there, that will drive gold and silver higher, haven’t even begun to play out yet.”

- Source, Kitco News

Saturday, November 9, 2019

Nick Barisheff: What Will Drive Gold to $10000?

Nick Barisheff, President & CEO, BMG Group Inc. and author of “$10,000 GOLD - Why Gold’s Inevitable Rise is the Investor’s Safe Haven,” joins Finance and Liberty to answer YOUR questions on gold and the direction our financial world is headed.

Friday, November 8, 2019

Thursday, November 7, 2019

Newfound Economic and Market Optimism A Warning?

The mainstream financial press breathed a collective sigh of relief after not only escaping an October stock market crash but also in seeing new all-time highs! 

On top of that, we have the latest spectacular jobs report that simply blew everybody's minds! But is the economy really as good as the propagandists are spinning it to be, and what is the risk in embracing this newfound optimism?

- Source, Silver Doctors

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

The path to $3,000 gold and beyond depends on this...

Monetary policies continue to be the dominant driver for gold’s next critical level, this according to Dan Oliver, founder of Myrmikan Capital. 

“What I look at is the balance sheet of Federal Reserve,” Oliver told Kitco News. “When [government] bonds finally break down, and they will break down someday because congress is insolvent, the only thing else on the Fed’s balance sheet is of course the gold, because they said they have 8,100 tonnes of gold.”

- Source, Kitco News

Would China and Russia Use the Nuclear Option on the United States?

Would China and Russia really use the “nuclear option” on the US—in other words, dump Treasuries to punish the US and push their countries higher? 

Such a move would cause a severe spike in US interest rates, crash our stock market, and easily push the economy into recession. It’s an extreme scenario, and many analysts believe it would temporarily hurt their own economies, too. 

But neither is the risk zero, given the unending tension in the trade and currency wars. As Mike Maloney and Ronnie Stoeferle discuss in their third video, while US Treasury holdings of both countries are in decline, they are both simultaneously loading up on gold. Russia has been a long-standing buyer on a monthly basis, and China has now added gold to its Reserves for 10 consecutive months. 

As Ronnie says, “it’s no coincidence that China is updating its gold reserves monthly.” The gold-buying trend stretches beyond China, Russia and other emerging markets. Many countries in Europe have been aggressively adding gold to their Reserves—for example, Poland, Romania, and Hungary. 

Further, many of these countries are repatriating their gold from London. In other words, the gold buying isn’t coming just from countries that are hostile to the US, but also its allies.

- Source, Gold Silver

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

The Not Enough Inflation Hoax: Is It Ignorance or Deception?

The dollars that you work hard for are always buying less and less, yet the government tells you there's 'not enough inflation'. 

The Federal Reserve is a government-created monopoly that counterfeit dollars by the billions and trillions, and you're supposed to believe that this is "capitalism." Oh, the tangled web they weave...

- Source, Ron Paul

Saturday, November 2, 2019

Nick Barisheff: Gold Beating Buffett Since 2000, Will Continue to Do So

Every week, there are new warnings sounding about an ever increasing wobbly economy? Stocks are near record highs, and so is the global debt. 

So, what do you do? 

Nick Barisheff, CEO of Bullion Management Group (BMG), says, “In the U.S. dollar since 2000, gold is up an average of 9.4% per year. In some countries, it’s up 14% and so on.

If you take the overall average of all the countries, the average increase is 10% a year. Every time Warren Buffett is on CNBC, he seems to go out of his way to disparage gold, but if you look at a chart of Berkshire Hathaway and gold, gold has outperformed Berkshire Hathaway.

Everybody worships Warren Buffett as the best investor in the world, and gold has outperformed his fund in U.S. dollars. I would not disparage gold if I were him. I’d keep quiet about it.” 

There is a first for Barisheff, too, in this financial environment. He says for the first time ever, he’s “100% invested in gold” as a percentage of his portfolio. He says the bottom “is in for gold,” and “the bottom is in for silver, too.”

Barisheff contends with the record bubbles and the record debt, both gold and silver will be setting new all-time high records, as well, in the not-so-distant future.

- Source, USA Watchdog

Friday, November 1, 2019

What if the Fed Stops Cutting Rates?

Fed rate cuts have been the driving force of the recent gains in precious metals.

This is not a surprise to our readers as since 2018 we argued that a shift in Fed policy from rate hikes to rate cuts would springboard the next big move. History argued the same.

The market is showing a roughly 90% chance the Fed will cut rates this week which indicates the market has essentially already priced in the rate cut.

The potential for a pause in the rate cuts could be why Gold, Silver and mining shares are all off their summer highs, despite an imminent rate cut.

This is why we expect the precious metals sector will continue to correct and especially in terms of time. It remains to be seen whether the correction continues as a price correction or morphs into a bullish consolidation.

In either case, precious metals will need a new narrative if the Fed pause is sustained well into 2020. Enter rising inflation and rising inflation expectations.

With respect to the Fed, if they don’t raise rates as inflation rises then that causes a steepening yield curve as well as a decline in real interest rates. Those things are bullish for precious metals.

In the chart below we plot the inflation expectations ETF RINF followed by the TIP to TLT ratio, the CRB (commodity prices) and the Yield Curve.

Note how inflation expectations increased in 2016 and until the middle or end of 2018. It was also during this time that the yield curve flattened as the Fed raised rates.

Inflation Expectations Indicators

The combination of rising inflation and rising inflation expectations was not bullish for precious metals in 2017 and 2018 because the Fed raised rates, the yield curve flattened and real interest rates declined.

At present we can see RINF and TIP vs. TLT have formed double bottoms while the CRB is on the cusp of breaking its downtrend and the Yield Curve has rebounded.

Simply put, if inflation and inflation expectations trend higher like in 2017 and 2018 but the Fed doesn’t raise rates, it is bullish for precious metals. In this scenario, Silver will outperform Gold and the juniors would outperform also.

Over the past week or so there have been a few positives with respect to the mining stocks. Both GDX and GDXJ formed mini-double bottoms while the silver stocks have performed even better.

We do need to keep an eye out for how the miners perform if the Fed indicates a pause is coming. Their performance over the weeks ahead could give us an early hint as to how much longer the correction will last.

In the meantime, we have been focusing on identifying and accumulating quality juniors with significant upside potential in 2020.

- Source, The Daily Gold

Thursday, October 31, 2019

Is Another Housing Crisis Like 2008 in the Near Future?

A decade after the last crisis, is another housing bubble brewing in North America? Los Angeles-based real estate investor Nick Halaris travels to two of the continent’s hottest markets – Vancouver and Seattle – to find out. 

By speaking to many different types of people at the center of those markets, Nick develops a 360-degree view of both cities. This allows him to draw his conclusion –and to leave viewers with an even more important question.

Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Alex Newman: Does the Government Think Own Your Children?

​Former teacher, homeschooler, and author of "Crimes of the Educators: How Utopians Are Using Government Schools to Destroy America's Children," 

Alex Newman visits Finance and Liberty and Reluctant Preppers for the first time to warn us that our children and our liberty are in peril. "The education fight — between those who want to provide solid schooling in the three R’s and other subjects and those who want to change kids’ core beliefs — is culminating. 

There is a silent struggle raging right now upon which the future of America and her liberties depends — literally. At its core, the struggle revolves around who will be responsible for children and their upbringing. 

Ultimately, there are only two options: parents or government. Right now, government appears to be winning. It is gaining ground with each passing generation, and with each passing day, through the public education system. 

But if luminaries of the Left get their way, this is only the beginning. The end goal goes far beyond education and touches every aspect of life."