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Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Soak the Boomers to Save Capitalism?

“The reason we’re having this argument over socialism and capitalism,” Pete Buttigieg explained recently, “is that capitalism has let a lot of people down.” Buttigieg, one of the Democrats’ many candidates for president, is not wrong — but this isn’t class warfare so much as intergenerational warfare. As such, there may be a way to resolve it without the economic destructiveness that often accompanies class conflict.

Some history can help explain where the tension is coming from. Well-educated, affluent baby boomers have done exceptionally well over the last 60 years. Yes, that’s due partly to prudence and hard work, but it’s also the result of luck. Over the last half century, the U.S. and global economies have undergone profound changes that have redounded to their benefit.

The first boomers were the most fortunate. They graduated from high school and college into the strongest labor market on record and an economy whose productivity was soaring due in part to a massive public investment in technology. In 1966, the federal government spent 0.7 percent of U.S. GDP on NASA — a level of spending that Medicare wouldn’t reach for another decade, and Medicaid wouldn’t see until the 1990s.

That cohort began taking out its mortgages a few years later. The principal on those loans was subsequently devoured by the inflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s, resulting in enormous gains for boomer homeowners. By the mid-1980s, just as the first boomers were entering their peak earning years and beginning to save for retirement, the Fed was embarked on a project of ratcheting inflation ever lower. This process would weaken the job market for new workers but set the stage for a series of asset price explosions, first in stocks and bonds and later in housing.

The rise of the global economy accelerated the trend. The fall of the communist bloc in the 1990s and the opening of China in the 2000s added hundreds of millions of workers to world markets, bringing cheaper consumer goods for those with money and more difficulty finding good paying jobs for those just entering the labor market.

It’s no accident, then, that many younger Americans take a dim view of capitalism. They were surrounded by great wealth, but they had limited access to good-paying jobs and faced ever higher housing prices. Many middle-aged Americans probably aren’t so sure about capitalism either: They may have had a brief taste of prosperity in the 1990s — yet not nearly enough to set themselves up for retirement or prepare them for the choppy labor market and wage stagnation of the last 20 years.

The question, then, is not the existence of these different perceptions, or of the intergenerational imbalance, but what to do about it. If the baby boomers continue to ignore it, the most socialist visions of the far left will continue to grow in popularity. The result won’t just be an expansion in government spending, but an intense effort to redistribute (or even destroy) accumulated wealth.

Rhetorically, that effort will be focused on the 1 percent. But it will soon become apparent that soaking the 1 percent is not enough.

Instead, the U.S. government should cut taxes on workers and replace them with taxes that target the lifestyles of the more fortunate. A straightforward way of doing this would be to cut or even eliminate payroll taxes and slowly replace them with a value-added tax, or VAT. Payroll taxes are the most significant taxes that young and lower-income people pay. Reducing or eliminating them would significantly raise the incomes of working people and encourage businesses to hire workers with less experience.

A VAT is a tax on the consumption of goods and services, and thus falls more heavily on those who spend a lot. The tax does raise the cost of living for those on Social Security, and that would have to be addressed. But it is also more progressive than a state and local sales tax.

There are other ways the government might change the tax code to help tamp down generational resentment. Eliminating the mortgage interest deduction, for example, would help deflate the artificial rise in home prices. The caps on mortgage interest and state and local tax deductions, which went into effect as part of the 2017 tax cut bill, already seem to be bringing down home prices in some expensive parts of the country.

Many of these changes would be unpleasant, to put it mildly, for affluent boomers living off their gains from their investments in the market and real estate. They might want to ask themselves, however, which is more painful: giving up some of their wealth — or ignoring the plight of the millennial generation and fomenting revolutionary change?

Monday, April 29, 2019

Did Xi Just Provide a Clue to China’s Yellow Brick Road?


In the past week, we have heard from the Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan. There were no surprises as both institutions noted softness in the global economy. The BOC, as reported by Bloomberg, “fully abandoned its bias toward raising interest rates at the economy grapples with a slowdown.” The BOC overnight rate remains at 1.75 percent, which is deemed appropriate by the Governing Council until the global economy removes some of the uncertainties it is struggling to overcome.

The BOJ statement continued to maintain that it is paramount for Japan to raise its inflation numbers because a failure to do so means this current period of “extremely low levels of short-and long -term interest rates” will continue “for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020.” This is aggressive forward guidance, and as the BOJ maintains, is representative of POWERFUL MONETARY EASING.

In an effort to justify its aggressive policy the BOJ said, “The Bank, decided to make clearer its stance to persistently continue with powerful monetary easing while examining uncertainties regarding economic activity and prices including the effects of the scheduled consumption tax hike and developments in overseas economies.”

The enhanced forward guidance is a bow to the possible negative impact from the scheduled increase in the consumption tax in October. The overnight rate will remain at -10 basis points and its present asset purchases will continue as the bank sees fit. From the U.S. perspective, the end result is that the BOC and BOJ force the FED to be very patient for any U.S. efforts to tighten policy would result in a strong dollar rally in the face of ultra-dovish foreign central banks.

The BOJ position is even more important as the U.S. and Japan are meeting this week in Washington to discuss trade policy. President Trump is expected to meet with Prime Minister Abe and trade concerns on the agenda. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso told Secretary Mnuchin that Tokyo would not accept trade concerns to be linked to monetary policy.

In a Reuters article on Thursday Aso said, “Japan won’t discuss exchange-rate matters in the context of trade talks.” It would be out of character for U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to accept any limitations in his negotiations on trade. Instead, I will be carefully listening to see if Trump openly gives this advantage to Abe in an effort to secure a trade agreement with the Japanese — especially in light of currency issues being a significant point in the U.S./China discussions. Currency valuations provide transparency and help promote “enforcement mechanisms” for the ability to promote punitive actions in violation of agreements.

While the BOC and BOJ headlined the week of central bank meetings, there were two other announcements, both of which underscored the importance of using dovish policy to weaken the currency. First, the Swedish Riksbank said it intends to keep its overnight rate negative longer than expected, and announced an 18-month BOND BUYING program. As a result, the krona fell to versus the dollar and weakened against the euro.

Then, Thomas Jordan, head of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) told financial institutions harmed by the central bank’s negative interest rates that the current policy was good for the entire population and would remain.

The WILLINGNESS to intervene in the foreign exchange market is a key component of SNB resolve to keep the Swiss franc competitive, especially versus the euro. Again, it is the desire by myriad governments to keep downward pressure on their fiat currencies that keeps Fed Chair Powell in a reactive position. The Fed is captive to global institutions.

There was a critical speech last week from Chinese President XI at the Belt and Road Forum. In particular, there were two lines that hearken back to Chairman Mao in their effort to titillate with hidden meanings. But before I discuss these points, the Xi speech itself seemed to be directed at President Trump rather than those in attendance at the forum. The South China Morning Post reported that Xi maintained that the Chinese would seek to keep the YUAN stable and not involve in beggar-thy-neighbor currency devaluation policies. Xi was very consistent in maintaining efforts to cooperate with the global community for the benefit of all nations: from trade and intellectual property protections, to sustaining GREEN growth.

In attempting to assuage the world and promote China’s promotion of global growth and not mercantile practices Xi said, “The great rivers and oceans are deep because they are open to all trickles. If inflows of streams and rivers are cut off, even a big sea will dry sooner or later.”The second quote I DEEM TO BE OF MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE for its cryptic reference to a GOLD-BACKED CURRENCY: “China treasures its promises and commitments with a thousand taels of gold.” (Taels is the historic unit of measure for gold in China.) I know this is not the accepted view of this speech but in the spirit of Mao I draw out this inference.

There is no question that the Chinese and Russian central banks have the largest purchasers of physical gold over the last few years in an effort to reallocate from vast DOLLAR reserves. The question always arises: FOR WHAT THE PURPOSE?

After President Xi’s speech there was an Nikkei article by Takashi Nakano titled, “China Lobbies ASEAN on Yuan Use, Cracking Dollar Dominance.” This week, the Thai and Chinese are going to recommend changing the 2000 Chiang Mai Initiative in which Asian nations built a framework for pooling dollars to aid other nations in the advent of a currency crisis. The protocol has never been used but its structure is in place. The Chinese, with other nations’ support, are seeking to increase the use of yuan and yen in the pool to lower the dependence on the dollar.

The Chinese know that until they have made the YUAN a highly respected tool for reserve currency status something more will have to be done. I THINK THAT XI JUST LAID OUT THAT SOMETHING: A GOLD-BACKED YUAN. In an effort to acquire financial respectability it would behoove the Chinese authorities to support the Road initiative with gold paving stones.

Is President XI riding the global financial ocean of liquidity as the Great Helmsman? This is truly the realm of Notes From Undergroundwhere 2+2=5.


Sunday, April 28, 2019

Hyperinflation Wiped Out The Savings of An Entire Generation


Thanks for watching this Silver Doctors Interview. Share your thoughts below and make sure to click the subscribe button to join the Silver Doctors Community. 

Today's guest, Philip Haslam, joins us to share some research on the consequences of monetary policy on fiat currencies and how it impacts society through hyperinflation.

- Source, Silver Doctors

Friday, April 26, 2019

Charles Hugh Smith: Debt Rising Faster Than Income


Can team Trump keep the economy going until after the 2020 election? 

Journalist and book author Charles Hugh Smith says, “I think you are pushing a little bit on a string to get a 10 year long expansion to stretch out to 12 years. 

It’s like you are pushing sand uphill at some point. Inflation is roaring in assets. 

Housing is unaffordable in many areas, and the stock market is at nosebleed levels. 

o, it’s kind of hard to say we are going to get another two years of growth, but I don’t think anybody can say it can’t happen. What we can say is debt levels are rising at a much faster rate than earned income. 

That’s where you are going to get a reset at some point. As costs go up and debt levels go up, then lowering interest rates gives you a little leeway, but only for awhile.”

- Source, USA Watchdog

Thursday, April 25, 2019

Q1 2019: Gold Steady Despite Surge in Equities

The gold price ended 2018 at $1,279 per ounce, after surging 5.3% the last two months of the year. Gold was flat the first three weeks of 2019, then jumped to $1,343.75 by February 20, a 5% increase. It gave most of the gains back in response to the rise in equity prices and progress on trade talks with China, ending the quarter up 1%.

Here is the performance of gold and other major assets classes in Q1.


Gold is typically inversely correlated to the equity markets; that it ended the quarter up in the face of higher stock markets is viewed as a sign of strength.
Potential Catalysts and Barriers

A number of potential factors could impact the gold price in the near term.

Equity Performance: Gold would be attractive if stocks weaken. The beginning stages of a bear market would further push an increasing number of investors into the gold market. Continued strength in equities would likely leave gold flat.

Market Volatility: Investors looking for stability would likely turn to gold on any spike in the VIX. Markets have arguably been less predictable of late.

Interest Rates: Our 2018 year-end report speculated that long-term bonds signaled the Fed was likely done raising short-term rates – and sure enough they paused. A rate reversal would serve as a strong catalyst for gold, since the cost of holding it would diminish.

Central Bank Buying: We also reported that central banks could continue to stock up on gold. Turns out they bought more gold in Q4 than since Nixon was president. Central bank gold purchases have remained a steady source of demand.

Brexit Struggles: Headlines continue to report on the conflicts with the UK leaving the EU. The British government arguably remains in crisis, as the departure date looms without a plan in place. The process and solutions remain messy, and gold would likely hedge a negative market reaction to any no-confidence vote.

Recession Watch: The yield curve teases going flat, and an inversion would serve as a potential signal of a recession. Gold is typically sought as a safe haven during periods of negative economic growth, and is flat or weak in when the economy is growing.

US Dollar: The dollar shows signs of wanting to roll over, and any weakness would be positive for the gold price. Strength would leave gold flat. The US dollar and gold tend to react inversely.

Geopolitical: Trade talks continue to make headlines, and the Trump White House remains unpredictable. Markets react fondly to President Trump’s certainties like tax cuts, and unfavorable to his surprises.

Debt event: While the Treasury has enough cash on hand to operate the government until sometime in the fall, debt issues garner increasing attention in the headlines, both domestic and abroad. Any unexpected surprises here could ignite gold.
The Hard Asset Hedge

Gold is about more than quarterly fluctuations, though. Gold…
Has outperformed stocks over the last 20 years
Can hedge against systemic risk, stock market pullbacks, and inflation
Is a store of wealth
Improves the risk-adjusted returns of portfolios, while reducing losses
Can provide liquidity to meet liabilities in times of market stress

An appropriate balance of gold in a portfolio can serve as a useful hedge, particularly as we face ongoing risks in markets, interest rates, geopolitics, debt, and currencies.

- Source, Jeff Clark

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

The World is Changing Before Our Eyes


Mike Maloney speaks with Patrick Byrne of Overstock.com. Patrick was a guest in Episode 8 of 'Hidden Secrets of Money', and has always been one of Mike's favorite people to speak with. 

Find out how they both see the world changing before our eyes in this extended follow-up recorded in April of 2019.

- Source, Gold Silver

Saturday, April 20, 2019

Mike Maloney: Why I'm Concerned for US Dollar Reserve Status


It's been a while since Mike Maloney has given an update on the 'Death Of The Dollar' as the world's reserve currency. Join him today for a look at some important events that are unfolding right now...

- Source, Gold Silver

Friday, April 19, 2019

Gold Support Levels As Silver Doesn't Follow


Gold this last week came into the support levels that we have been talking about on Golden Rule Radio for the last few months. Silver however did not follow suit. 

We will review the price movements of platinum and palladium as well as looking at the large reversal in the Commitment Of Traders report numbers for the precious metals.


Thursday, April 18, 2019

Trump Boxed In The Fed, Controls The Economic Narrative


IMF and the other [CB] are worried about the crypto market, they are creating an in house coin that will simulate a real world economy, the IMF says that the crypto market has shaken the system. 

Trump now has control of the economic system and the narrative, the [CB] is now boxed in. The [CB] is boxed in and the patriots are in control.

- Source, X22 Report

Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Ray Dalio Wants To Reform A Capitalism That Doesn't Exist


Capitalism created the greatest prosperity that the world had ever seen in early-America. 

But by the late 1800's, a litany of American presidents declared that the age of "laissez-faire" was over. Government would intervene into every corner of life. 

And..ever since...it has! The horrendous consequences of this are apparent to everyone. But there are now some people who are trying to shift the blame. 

They're trying to blame "Capitalism" for the consequences of an over-bearing government.

- Source, Ron Paul

Sunday, April 14, 2019

Julian Assange Arrested, Setting Stage for Attacks on The Press Worldwide


In a blatant attack on free speech and liberty, the UK government has moved in and arrested the Wikileaks founder, Julian Assange.

The political class is none too pleased with his exposing of their crimes and corruption and the time to act was now, before the 2020 elections.

The fight for his freedom continues on, but will the people be able to overcome the "elites"?


Friday, April 12, 2019

Silver and Gold: Another Buying Opportunity Ahead?


Silver and gold seem to be ending the week on a down note. If this weakness continues, don't be surprised to see moderately lower prices in the coming weeks and months.

- Source, Silver Fortune

Thursday, April 11, 2019

John Rubino: With QT Ending, What Now For Gold?


John Rubino with the popular financial website the Dollar Collapse, talks about the need to return to a gold backed monetary system with debt markets at false levels.

- Source, Jay Taylor Media

Tuesday, April 9, 2019

Jeff Berwick: Is The Government Trying To Control Us?


Jeff Berwick is interviewed well by Steven Melnick for Happiness Amplified Interviews at Anarchapulco 2019.

Topics include: Jeff's celebrity, early days of Bitcoin, the shamen at Anarchapulco, the people at Anarchapulco, learning new things, new information, depopulation agenda, living in the matrix, hidden knowledge, medical industry, mind control, self defense, spirit medicine, promoting freedom, the search for happiness, the importance of business names, what is in a name?



Friday, April 5, 2019

What Happens When Gold Stocks Diverge From The Bullion?


When gold mining stocks diverge from gold bullion, the yellow metal typically rallies, said David Erfle, Kitco News contributor. 

“That’s happening right now. If you look at the GDX and gold ratio, the gold stocks are positively diverting from gold, so ever since the bottom in the GDX was hit, ironically on September 11 last year, the trend has been up and it stayed up,” Erfle told Kitco News.

Thursday, April 4, 2019

Global Gold Demand Will Rise to Four Year High in 2019


Global demand for gold in 2019 will rise to the highest in four years as higher consumption by jewelers offsets a fall in purchases by central banks, an industry report said on Monday.

The world will consume 4,370 tonnes of gold this year, the most since 2015 and up slightly from 4,364 tonnes in 2018, consultancy Metals Focus said.

Its Gold Focus 2019 report also predicted gold prices would average $1,310 an ounce this year, up from $1,268 in 2018 and the highest since 2013.

Gold currently trades around $1,300 an ounce.

Gold consumption for jewelry will rise 3 percent this year to 2,351 tonnes, driven by increases of 7 percent in India and 3 percent in China - the two largest markets - which will counter lower demand in the Middle East, Metals Focus said.

Purchases by the official sector, which surged almost 75 percent in 2018 as central banks added gold to diversify their reserves, will slip 9 percent this year to 600 tonnes, the report predicted.

Physical investment demand will remain largely unchanged from 2018 at 1,082 tonnes.

Metals Focus said gold supply would rise by 1 percent to 4,707 tonnes thanks to higher mine production and recycling and some producer hedging.

Helping gold prices to rise would be the end of interest rate rises by the U.S. Federal Reserve, along with political and economic uncertainty around the world, Metals Focus said, but it added that a strong dollar would limit gains.


- Source, Reuters

Wednesday, April 3, 2019

Is Europe Ready for the Next Crisis? Are they Prepared?


Europe has emerged from 10 years of financial and monetary crises with a stronger currency but divided politics.

Growing populist movements, some of them already in power, have frayed the ties holding together the European Union’s 28 nations. One of those nations, the United Kingdom, is due to exit at a yet undecided date. A banking crisis in Italy or another large country could test Europe’s financial system.

The geopolitical challenges that Europe faces this year raise the question of whether it would find the political will and ability to react swiftly to an economic shock.

A shock such as Brexit, says Isabelle Mateos y Lago, chief multi-asset strategist at BlackRock, “would hit the EU economy at a time of weakness in economic momentum and sentiment, and this initial impact could be compounded by uncertainty as to the scope for either monetary or fiscal policy to respond swiftly and boldly enough.”

Part of the reason for the uncertainty is that these new challenges come amid a changing of the guard in Europe’s leadership. The politicians and central bankers who saw Europe through the tribulations of the past decade will be retiring within the next few months. And the new generation of leaders is untested.

“I’m not sure we could act together fast when the next big one happens,” said a European treasury official who was one of the key architects of the euro zone’s Greek, Portuguese, and Irish euro-zone bailouts of the past decade.

To begin with, there are questions around the European Central Bank. Monetary policy was the cement that kept the euro zone together after ECB President Mario Draghi famously pledged in 2012 to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. The Italian retires at the end of October, and all bets are off as to his successor. The euro-zone leaders’ choice next June will depend on a careful weighing of political and geographical considerations.

“Draghi was key; who they will choose and which criteria they will favor is a major source of uncertainty,” noted the head of a major Italian bank, who requested anonymity.

Still, no matter who next leads the ECB, most economists and European officials say that the euro zone—the 19 countries that share the euro currency—is on a stronger footing today than 10 years ago. Instruments and institutions created in the heat of repeated crises would help cushion the blow of another market scare. A 400 billion euro emergency bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, has built a strong record of helping countries in need. And one single supervisor now oversees the region’s largest banks to make sure they have enough capital buffers to withstand major shocks.

Yet the political landscape that made those initiatives possible is changing...


- Source, Barrons, read more here

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

Jim Grant: The Fed Was Technically Insolvent Last Year. Why Didn’t Anyone Care?


In finance today, comfort trumps propriety. As necks are tieless, so are earnings “adjusted.” As shirts are untucked, so are balance sheets encumbered. In the 21st century way of doing business, freedom of action is the beau ideal. Neither clothing nor rules should constrain it.

Has anyone noticed that the Federal Reserve is solvent again? Unlikely, as few realized that it was technically insolvent. At the Sept. 30 reporting date, cumulative unrealized losses in the system’s open market account totaled $66.4 billion, almost twice the $39.1 billion of capital available to absorb that hypothetical loss.

These are matters of form, not function, you will hear. The Fed does not mark itself to market. It pays its earnings into the Treasury, rather than retaining them. And it returned to technical solvency in the fourth quarter on the back of the year-end bond rally.

Then, too, in 2011 the Treasury pledged itself to support the central bank in times of trial. Maybe it’s for that reason that Congress raided the Fed for $19.3 billion to fund the 2015 highway act, Janet Yellen vainly protesting that the central bank’s capital account “creates confidence in our ability to manage monetary policy.”

Such capital alone lends no such confidence, but the decapitalization did lift an already elevated ratio of systemwide assets to equity. On March 20, it topped 100:1—10 times the year-end leverage ratio of JPMorgan Chase. In the great cause of financial-institution safety and soundness, the Fed isn’t exactly leading from the front.

Does any of this matter? It used to. A currency once derived its strength from the integrity of the balance sheet of the bank that issued it—the more liquid that institution’s assets, the more plentiful its capital, the more confident the market could be in the ability of the money-holding public to exchange its currency for gold, and vice versa.

That was the classical, white-tie gold standard. Its dress-down successor, the Bretton Woods system, a gold standard much reduced in starch and rigor, died in 1971. Succeeding it is the paper-money, or blue-jeans, standard. The paper dollar owes its value to the say-so of the government alone.

Since 2008, the blue-jeans standard has given way to a kind of knee-ripped jeans standard—quantitative easing, ultralow interest rates, and nonstop “forward guidance,” along with the rest of the bag of worldwide radical monetary-policy tricks.

Under the gold standard, people adjusted their affairs to the fixed value of the dollar. Under the paper system, the Fed adjusts the unfixed value of the dollar to the perceived needs of the people. This is a profound transformation, but it long ago lost its shock value.

The world has likewise become habituated to such Friday-casual accounting metrics as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda. In decrying that nonorthodox cash-flow substitute in 2000, Moody’s correctly traced it to the leveraged buyout mania of the 1980s. Highly levered companies struggled to meet fixed charges out of the old standby Ebit—earnings before interest and taxes. They covered their interest expense with room to spare by subtracting depreciation and amortization from the classical measure of debt-service capacity. What was the harm? D&A are noncash charges, the investment bankers noted.

“Ebitda can drift from the realm of reality,” the Moody’s analysts, led by Pamela M. Stumpp, replied. Depreciation is real enough for a trucking company with a rusting fleet, or a wireless company with an ageing technology. “Ebitda,” prophetically noted Stumpp et al., “can easily be manipulated through aggressive accounting policies relating to revenue and expense recognition, asset write-downs and concomitant adjustments to depreciation schedules, excessive adjustments in deriving `adjusted pro-forma Ebitda’ and by the timing of certain `ordinary course’ asset sales.”

What’s slack gets slacker. Not even Stumpp anticipated “community-adjusted Ebitda,” the bespoke cash-flow measure of WeWork, the fashion-forward office-leasing company, which the other day somehow reported a 2018 net loss, $1.9 billion, larger than its 2018 revenue, $1.8 billion. Whereas corporate managers once adapted to accounting standards, now accounting standards are adapted for corporate managers.


- Source, Jim Grants via Barrons, read more here

Monday, April 1, 2019

The Fed Corrupts Society: Is It Intentional, Or Out of Ignorance?


A corrupt monetary system must infuse corruption throughout the entire society. 

America's monetary system run by the Federal Reserve, which is a Congressionally created monopoly that has the power to create money out-of-thin-air, is the poster boy of institutionalized corruption. 

Sound money is the only way out.

- Source, Ron Paul