TRACKING THE GOLD AND SILVER INVESTMENT COMMUNITY, WORLDWIDE - AN UNOFFICIAL EDITING OF RELATED INVESTMENT COMMENTARY
Thursday, October 31, 2013
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
China is Making a Move Against the US Dollar
While 20-year highs for the CNY may be enough for many to question the USD's ongoing reserve status, it is clear that there are many other plans afoot that undermine the dominance of the greenback. On the global financial stage, China is playing chess while the U.S. is playing checkers, and the Chinese are now accelerating their long-term plan to dethrone the U.S. dollar. You see, the truth is that China does not plan to allow the U.S. financial system to dominate the world indefinitely. Unfortunately for us, the U.S. debt spiral cannot go on indefinitely. Our debt is growing far, far more rapidly than our GDP is, and therefore our debt is completely and totally unsustainable. The Chinese understand what is going on, and when the dust settles they plan to be the last ones standing.
- Source, Zero Hedge, read the full article here:
Sunday, October 27, 2013
JPMorgan To Pay Record $13 Billion Mortgage Settlement, Criminal Case Remains
Under the guidance of Jamie Dimon, adjudged by the mainstream media to be the greatest banker the world has ever known (hyperbole accepted), a late night Friday phone call (we assume not a drunk-dial) between Attorney General Eric Holder and JPMorgan's general counsel, confirms, according to the WSJ, that JPMorgan will settle their residential mortgage bond suits with the DoJ for $13 Billion - the biggest settelement ever for a single company. Bloomberg reports that an additional $2 billion was added during the negotiations last night. Who knows: perhaps Dimon feels the same about Holder as the rest of the population and made it quite clear, at a cost of another $2 billion.
The final wording of the deal is to be finalized but as part of the deal the DoJ expects JPM to cooperate with the continuing criminal probe of the bank's RMBS issuance - which remain unresolved. The settlement is 'unsurprisingly' in line with JPM's expected litigation expenses for Q2/Q3 13 but it would appear they expect worse to come still as the total litigation reserve was recently increased.
The final wording of the deal is to be finalized but as part of the deal the DoJ expects JPM to cooperate with the continuing criminal probe of the bank's RMBS issuance - which remain unresolved. The settlement is 'unsurprisingly' in line with JPM's expected litigation expenses for Q2/Q3 13 but it would appear they expect worse to come still as the total litigation reserve was recently increased.
- Source, Zero Hedge, read the full article here:
Friday, October 25, 2013
Why Gold Production is Going to Zero
In an excellent new piece entitled, “The growing 90% club and why gold production is going to go to zero”, Hinde Capital’s Co-Founder and CFO, Mark Mahaffey, asserts that it’s only a matter of time before world gold production goes to zero. That end-point is approaching quickly he implies, as the cost to pull an oz. of gold out of the ground is growing faster than ever before.
Here is an excerpt from Mark’s piece:
“If gold prices stay at the current levels for a prolonged period of time, do not be surprised if gold production falls much closer to zero. From an investor’s perspective it is a treacherous minefield. Of course, there are companies who really do have high grade ore reserves who can really claim to mine at $800/ ounce but these are very rare, maybe less than 5% of the 2000 quoted companies. The Northern Miner writes that out of their survey of 1400 Toronto listed firms, 721 currently have less than $200k cash in the treasury.
Here is an excerpt from Mark’s piece:
“If gold prices stay at the current levels for a prolonged period of time, do not be surprised if gold production falls much closer to zero. From an investor’s perspective it is a treacherous minefield. Of course, there are companies who really do have high grade ore reserves who can really claim to mine at $800/ ounce but these are very rare, maybe less than 5% of the 2000 quoted companies. The Northern Miner writes that out of their survey of 1400 Toronto listed firms, 721 currently have less than $200k cash in the treasury.
(click to enlarge)
While the big caps that make up the GDX index are unlikely to go out of business in the short term and may offer some trading opportunities for a bounce here, the very nature of this desperate business remains. Huge capital is required a long time before there is even the sniff of future cash flow. All companies can go to zero but mining companies get there much faster than most. Strangely it might well be the demise of 1000 mining companies over the next year that is the most bullish reason for the survivors.
If gold production really does fall off a cliff, the standard laws of supply and demand should be a huge positive factor for the price of gold. The sentiment in the gold market is horrendous led by the media and the price action. It is down 25% on the year. If you were looking for an asset class with a high margin of safety, (production cost) that was universally hated with no speculative long positions for a long term value portfolio allocation, you could do a lot worse than gold bullion at $1250 ounce.”
Mark also notes within the piece that:
“In the resource business where the price of gold changes by the second, there is always the possibility that in the future the price will rise above the production price and so there is an inherent call option in the stock price. Unfortunately this has to be offset by thecarrying cost of the asset. If it’s in your back garden, carrying cost is pretty minimal. If you are having to pay even skeleton salaries, keep up permitting, ownership rights, pay listing fees etc., then these carrying costs will eat in to the call option value pretty quickly.”
To read Mark Mahaffey’s article in full, visit: HindeCapital.com
While the big caps that make up the GDX index are unlikely to go out of business in the short term and may offer some trading opportunities for a bounce here, the very nature of this desperate business remains. Huge capital is required a long time before there is even the sniff of future cash flow. All companies can go to zero but mining companies get there much faster than most. Strangely it might well be the demise of 1000 mining companies over the next year that is the most bullish reason for the survivors.
If gold production really does fall off a cliff, the standard laws of supply and demand should be a huge positive factor for the price of gold. The sentiment in the gold market is horrendous led by the media and the price action. It is down 25% on the year. If you were looking for an asset class with a high margin of safety, (production cost) that was universally hated with no speculative long positions for a long term value portfolio allocation, you could do a lot worse than gold bullion at $1250 ounce.”
Mark also notes within the piece that:
“In the resource business where the price of gold changes by the second, there is always the possibility that in the future the price will rise above the production price and so there is an inherent call option in the stock price. Unfortunately this has to be offset by thecarrying cost of the asset. If it’s in your back garden, carrying cost is pretty minimal. If you are having to pay even skeleton salaries, keep up permitting, ownership rights, pay listing fees etc., then these carrying costs will eat in to the call option value pretty quickly.”
To read Mark Mahaffey’s article in full, visit: HindeCapital.com
-Source, Bull Market Thinking:
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
The Majority of Investments Will Decline
Gold and silver will become some of the best investments in the future as they are a store of “Economic Energy”, a term coined by Mike Maloney. On the other hand, most paper assets are not a store of this economic energy, but rather what I call, “Energy IOU’s.” Energy has to be burned to create the economic activity to satisfy and pay back these paper assets.
The world is holding onto trillions of dollars of Energy IOU’s masquerading as assets that will have no future… and the future is now here.
The U.S. economy and world are heading toward an ENERGY WALL and the majority of the public and investors are not prepared for the ramifications. Certain investments will hold their value or show significant gains, while the majority will decline.
Gold and silver will be driven up to extreme levels in the future as investors switch out of increasingly worthless paper assets and into the precious metals to protect their wealth before it evaporates.
The world is holding onto trillions of dollars of Energy IOU’s masquerading as assets that will have no future… and the future is now here.
The U.S. economy and world are heading toward an ENERGY WALL and the majority of the public and investors are not prepared for the ramifications. Certain investments will hold their value or show significant gains, while the majority will decline.
Gold and silver will be driven up to extreme levels in the future as investors switch out of increasingly worthless paper assets and into the precious metals to protect their wealth before it evaporates.
- Source, SRSRocco:
Monday, October 21, 2013
Gold and Silver To Extreme Values
The precious metal investors are actually sitting on gold mine, and they don’t even know the real reason why this is true. Many analysts are focusing on the huge amount of debt and fiat money in the system to be invested in gold and silver, but the fundamental root cause continues to go unnoticed.
While the massive amount of debt, derivatives and fiat money are indeed excellent reasons to own the precious metals, they are the mere symptoms and not the disease itself. The advanced societies of the world were built on an economic system that can only survive if it continues to grow. Without growth, the $100′s of trillions in derivatives and debts would implode — along with it the Suburban Retail-Commercial-Housing economy.
The key ingredient that drives the growth of the world’s economies is energy. The most vital energy component of the global economy is oil. Peak oil would have come and gone, if it wasn’t for the $trillions in new debt that allowed non-commercial oil resources such as shale oil to be extracted. Basically, the U.S. and world are purchasing a percentage of oil it cannot afford.
There is a great deal of energy disinformation published on the MSM and internet. Several of the well-known alternative media analysts on the internet have been beating the drum for shale oil & gas. Even though shale energy has been a boost to the U.S. economy, it will not be long-lived — regardless of the hype and overly optimistic forecasts.
One of the most recent energy falsehoods being advertised, is that the U.S. is now the largest oil producer in the world surpassing Russia & Saudi Arabia...
While the massive amount of debt, derivatives and fiat money are indeed excellent reasons to own the precious metals, they are the mere symptoms and not the disease itself. The advanced societies of the world were built on an economic system that can only survive if it continues to grow. Without growth, the $100′s of trillions in derivatives and debts would implode — along with it the Suburban Retail-Commercial-Housing economy.
The key ingredient that drives the growth of the world’s economies is energy. The most vital energy component of the global economy is oil. Peak oil would have come and gone, if it wasn’t for the $trillions in new debt that allowed non-commercial oil resources such as shale oil to be extracted. Basically, the U.S. and world are purchasing a percentage of oil it cannot afford.
There is a great deal of energy disinformation published on the MSM and internet. Several of the well-known alternative media analysts on the internet have been beating the drum for shale oil & gas. Even though shale energy has been a boost to the U.S. economy, it will not be long-lived — regardless of the hype and overly optimistic forecasts.
One of the most recent energy falsehoods being advertised, is that the U.S. is now the largest oil producer in the world surpassing Russia & Saudi Arabia...
- Source: SRSRocco, Read the full article here:
Saturday, October 19, 2013
Alasdair Macleod Breaks Down $680 Million Gold Order
- Source, Keiser Report:
Sunday, October 13, 2013
Hierarchy of Price Fixing
- Source, Maxkeiser.com
Friday, October 11, 2013
The Implosion of Debt Will be Extremely Unpleasant
This is just the beginning. As the problems in the US and the world economy start to deteriorate in 2014, I could easily see US borrowings and the Fed’s balance sheet expanding by several trillion dollars. Eventually it will be much more than that (trillions of debt) as the dollar falls, interest rates rise, and the hyperinflationary economy starts.
But the printing of money will not have any effect (on the economy). The central banks’ policies have caused debt to expand exponentially. This has greatly enhanced the wealthy, and given the masses the illusion that they are better off, when all they have is a massive debt that can never be repaid. If we just look at the richest 1% in the US, they have an average of 20% debt vs assets. But the masses, 80% of the people, have 90% debt vs assets. This, of course, doesn’t include government debt that is also the people’s debt.
The implosion of this debt will be extremely unpleasant for the world. So I am sad to say that it will be a horrible time that the world is going to go through. It will take a very long time to unwind all of this (debt), but the start (of this unwind) could be very quick. In my view we will see a very long decline.
- Source, Egon von Greyerz via King World News:
Wednesday, October 9, 2013
Obama to Announce Janet Yellen as FED Chairman
The WSJ is reporting tonight that Obama is set to announce ultra-dove Janet Yellen as Ben Bernanke’s replacement as Fed Chairman(woman) in a Wednesday afternoon press conference.
While gold and silver have not even blinked on the news in overnight Globex/Asian trading, don’t be fooled: a Yellen nomination is MASSIVELY bullish for the metals, as Yellen’s ultra-dovish monetary policy is likely to make Helicopter Ben’s reign look like Ebenezer Scrooge has been running the Fed the past 8 years.
While gold and silver have not even blinked on the news in overnight Globex/Asian trading, don’t be fooled: a Yellen nomination is MASSIVELY bullish for the metals, as Yellen’s ultra-dovish monetary policy is likely to make Helicopter Ben’s reign look like Ebenezer Scrooge has been running the Fed the past 8 years.
- Source, The Silver Doctors:
Friday, October 4, 2013
Matt Taibbi - Wall Street Hedge Funds Are Looting the Pension Funds
- Source:
Wednesday, October 2, 2013
Jim Grant - Why I'm Bullish on Gold
- Source, Bloomberg:
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