The skyrocketing debt and flat out money printing was somewhat alarming in 2020, and it already looks like 2021 is shaping up to be downright shocking.
And the massive stimulus programs aren’t just taking place in the US, but around the world, so we’re checking in with our good friend Simon Popple on Thursday, January 21, 2021, to try to make some sense of all the big government spending, as well as explore some ideas of what we can do to protect our savings and maybe even profit from it.
This week we cover gold & precious metals in 2021, where will silver go next, and are the precious metals on the cusp of their next big move? We'll review the movement of the US Dollar Index, gold, silver, platinum, and more.
Tom welcomes back Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis. He discusses past markets and how in the 1976 period, investors moved into commodities and stocks went sideways.
Today, we are entering a similar period as most commodities have had long basing periods and are now turning upwards.
This move seems to be caused by the expansion of the money supply and monetary policy.
Since mid-2018, gold has gone from $1160 to $2000 and has done so without the help of weak stock markets. Now the dollar is turning downwards while markets are at highs.
Big investors seem to be moving assets into different sectors, and soon we may see a violent rebalancing. He discusses how silver broke one of their momentum oscillators in July and, afterward, moved rapidly to near $30.
He expects gold to do something very similar soon. This next move could easily be eightfold, and silver is now poised to outperform gold.
Major annual momentum shifts and macro factors are now spreading to the daily news. This chaos seemed baked into the cake a year ago.
Michael cautions that the most delusional trend is the US stock market, and there are times when the Fed backs off, or the market collapses on its own regardless of Fed actions.
Today, there are only five or six stocks that comprise 50% of the Nasdaq 100. It looks like a blow-off top that began this summer, maybe topping out.
The dollar forecast is difficult to predict, but it usually follows the trend for some time.
Michael outlines where treasuries may head and why we are entering a time of flight to safety. He says, "Many investor assumptions will be overturned this year."
Tom welcomes Lyn Alden, Financial Newsletter Editor & Publisher, back to the program.
Lyn discusses this economic downturn. We've seen a rebound in some asset classes, but it will take most of 2021 to see all the effects play out.
We've seen a weaker dollar and slowing GDP growth globally. By late 2021 the global economy should improve gradually.
She discusses the longer cycles around GDP and the dollar. She discusses the book "The Fourth Turning," in which there is a significant restructuring of debt, roughly every eighty years.
Debts get so high that there is a final rapid expansion of the money supply. She explains the differences between monetary policy and fiscal policy.
Fiscal policy has more to do with government spending and taxation. The key takeaway is that these two forms of policy begin to blend at the end of long debt cycles.
Several catalysts may drive inflation, and one of those will be commodity prices.
Most commodities today, including energy, are very cheap, but precious metals generally move before the rest of the sector. She is bearish on the dollar over the next three to five years.
She says, "The petrodollar system was based on the United States having forty percent of world GDP.
Expect to see a multi-polar system of currencies soon as the dollar system has become a bottleneck." She's favorable to holding some foreign equities and commodities, including some digital assets.
This week we cover the price movements of gold, silver, platinum, palladium, US Dollar Index, DOW Industrials, and more. We'll review key fundamentals to watch closely over the coming months in relation to gold & silver.
"If Biden is sworn in, he'll shut the economy down this winter more than Trump would have. USD goes under the bus, stagflation is likely. They'll blame COVID-19, but for once, socialism might also get some of the blame for the trouble it causes..." said Lobo Tiggre of the Independent Speculator in a Tweet made last week.
Tom welcomes a new guest to the program, Gary Wagner. Gary has been a technical trader for over 25 years and is the executive producer of "The Gold Forecast," a daily video newsletter.
Gary discusses how people are waiting for more stimulus, but the next program will likely not arrive until February. The economy continues to contract, and while some businesses are doing very well, others are being hit quite hard.
The Fed has stated that interest rates will remain unchanged as they still have some options in their toolbox. Expect gold and equities to continue to do well in this environment.
We've had the most massive budget deficit on record at three trillion to fund this crisis. There is still a lot of work to be done, and he expects that 2021 will have a similar or perhaps even larger deficit than 2020.
The government will likely continue bailing out specific sectors through next year.
Typically Democrats spend more than Republicans, and there is much uncertainty surrounding Trump.
What America needs no matter who wins is a peaceful transition of power. From now on, there could be a lot more protests. Gary discusses how fast technology is moving quickly and why that makes him cheerful and optimistic about the future.
Gary believes cryptocurrencies will find a place in the fabric of society. Crypto allows third world countries and developing countries to transfer value with relative ease.
He likes silver as it will outperform gold during moves but will also correct harder to the downside.
There is a finite amount of both metals, and there will always be intrinsic value with these assets.
He discusses what being a hybrid technical trader means for him and how he was mentored by two great technical traders Larry Williams and Don Bollinger.
He says, "Making money isn't that difficult. Keeping it is the hard part." Finding the tops is the hard part of the markets, and he discusses some of the alternative trading techniques he uses.
Oil prices are rolling over (again) as many Eu countries go into a 2nd round of lock downs. Demand for gasoline, jet fuel, plastics and other petroleum products has not returned to anywhere near pre-pandemic levels so it was predictable that oil prices might roll over again back into a bear market and income investors relying in dividends or distributions (from MLPs) throughout the oil value chain might be hurt badly if oil prices roller over from the $40 trading range since early June.
