World's Wealthiest Families Are Stockpiling Cash as Recession Fears Grow

Rick Stone, a former partner at Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft, sees treacherous times ahead for family offices trying to deploy cash.

The head of Stone Family Office said he doubts the bond market will provide any real return over the next decade, that equity markets will suffer a substantial drop and then be flat, and that too much venture capital and private equity money will continue to chase too few opportunities.

“It’s a very hard time for family offices to allocate money,” said Stone, 60, whose initial wealth came from class-action litigation fees.

Stone has a good vantage point on the action, since he runs the bi-monthly meetings of the Palm Beach Investment Research Group, a network of 35 family offices in Palm Beach, Florida. “The areas to invest in are fewer, and there is a lot of money looking for those spaces,” he said.

That view of the markets is shared by many of the 360 global single- and multi-family offices surveyed for the 2019 UBS Global Family Office Report, which was done in conjunction with Campden Research and released Monday. A majority expect the global economy to enter a recession by 2020, with the highest percentage of gloomy respondents in emerging markets. About 42% of family offices around the world are raising cash reserves.

‘More Caution’

“There’s more caution and fear of the public equity markets among ultra-high-net-worth investors,” said Timothy O’Hara, president of Rockefeller Global Family Office. “That has more people thinking about private investments, alternative investments or cash.”

Jeffrey Gundlach, chief investment officer of DoubleLine Capital, said this month he thinks there’s a 75% chance of a U.S recession before the November 2020 presidential election, while economists surveyed by Bloomberg in August predicted a 35% chance in the next 12 months, up four percentage points from a month earlier. Meanwhile, the World Bank cut its 2019 global forecast to the slowest since the financial crisis a decade ago...

- Source, Yahoo Finance

Is the Big Market Cycle About to Turn?

Ron William, founder of RWA, has been studying cycles and market behavior for over 20 years. He sees great value in using cycles to drive the investment decision, but he also acknowledges their limitations. 

Fundamentals, applied to a cycle framework, provide a key risk management tool to help navigate the oncoming turn in the big picture trends

- Source, Real Vision Finance

Gold edges higher as softer dollar, Gulf tensions lend support

Gold prices rose on Friday and were headed for their first weekly gain in a month, supported by a softer dollar, tensions in the Middle East and caution about Sino-U.S. trade talks, while palladium climbed to a fresh record peak.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,503.36 per ounce, as of 0800 GMT, up about 1% this week. U.S. gold futures were up 0.5% at $1,513.5 per ounce.

“A weaker U.S. dollar is giving gold a little bit of an upward drift,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, adding that “prices are still very much in the middle of a trading range and pinned to $1,500 level.”

The dollar slipped on Friday and was headed for a third straight week of losses as central banks in Japan, the UK and Switzerland refrained from cutting rates.

“Investors are all waiting on any further developments in the trade negotiations as they move towards October meeting and that may provide next big driver for gold prices,” McCarthy said.

U.S. and Chinese deputy trade negotiators resumed face-to-face talks for the first time in nearly two months on Thursday, trying to lay the groundwork for high-level talks in early October.

Gold prices have risen about 17% this year mainly on U.S.-China trade tensions, concerns over the global economic growth outlook and prospects of monetary easing by central banks.

The Fed cut interest rates for the second time this year on Wednesday to help sustain economic expansion but gave mixed signals on future rate cuts.

Also, giving bullion a lift were tensions in the Middle East as the United States said on Thursday it was building a coalition to deter Iranian threats following a weekend attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities.

The strategy for retaliation against the attacks on Saudi oil plants is not clear and the uncertainties are keeping gold’s safe-haven bid intact, said Vandana Bharti, assistant vice-president of commodity research at SMC Comtrade.

On the technical front, signals are mixed for spot gold as it is stuck in a narrow range of $1,488-$1,514 per ounce, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Elsewhere, palladium rose 1% to $1,640.15 per ounce, having hit a record peak of $1,646.81. Prices were up 2% for the week in a seventh straight weekly gain.

Platinum and silver were up 0.7% at $943.52 and $17.89 per ounce, respectively.

- Source, Reuters

The Monetary Endgame...

​It’s now official: central banks’ stated policy is to take interest rates and the value of the US dollar to zero. But not until they’ve managed to tie up the world's real estate and other hard assets, leaving the vast majority of people in poverty. 

Wayne Jett, constitutional attorney, who has argued cases up to and including the US Supreme Court, author of “The Fruits of Graft, Great Depressions Then and Now,” and founder of ClassicalCapital.com, returns to Reluctant Peppers to expound on his latest article “MONETARY POLICY END GAME - Central Banks To Fight Fake ‘Deflation’.”

- Source, Reluctant Preppers

Why Government Fails...

Governments don’t work the way most people think they do. Public choice theory explores how voters, politicians, and bureaucrats actually make decisions. Prof. Antony Davies explains.

- Source, Learn Liberty

Ten Myths About Government Debt Exposed

Myth 1 is that the government owes “only” $20 trillion. (In reality, it’s much more.) But luckily, Myth 10 is that there’s no way to fix this problem… Prof. Antony Davies explains.

- Source, Learn Liberty

How many quality gold deposits truly exist?

The gold mining sector faces a major challenge: overcoming dwindling economic reserves, said Brent Cook of Exploration Insights, and higher gold prices may not be what’s needed to keep miners in the black. 

“The story is that we are going to run out of gold deposits. That’s not the case. What we are running out of is economic deposits, the discovery of economic deposits. There’s no shortage of marginal deposits or sub-economic deposits, and the question is, is the rising gold price going to fix all that or not?” 

Cook told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Precious Metals Summit in Beaver Creek. Importantly, Cook noted his thesis is that 80% of deposits will be marginal at any price because they have fundamental flaws.

- Source, Kitco News

Rob McEwen: Gold price should be $21000 if you follow history

Historically, gold prices have climbed much more than what we have seen so far during bull rallies, and if we apply historical multiples, gold should be trading closer to the $8,000 to $21,000 an ounce price range, this according to Rob McEwen, chairman of McEwen Mining. 

“Gold from 1970 to 1980 went $40 to $800, so a 20x move. And then it dropped to $250 in 1999 and 2001 and ran to $1,900, that was a 7x move. If you apply any one of those multiples to the lowest low we had recently of $1,050, you could see $8,000 to $21,000 price on gold,” McEwen told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Precious Metals Summit in Beaver Creek.

- Source, Kitco News

Will The Boneheads At The Fed Really Cut Interest Rates Below Zero?

Trump Calls for negative interest rates and the President also says if it wasn't for the "Boneheads" at the Fed, the US would have a "once in a lifetime opportunity" for super-long duration bonds at zero to negative interest rates. Let's sort out what this all means for gold, silver, the dollar, the markets and the economy.

- Source, Silver Doctors

Will the Fed Do Anything to Avoid Recession?

Lakshman Achuthan, co founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, takes us inside the business cycle to examine the impact of waves of QE and where we stand in terms of identifying the timing of the next recession. 

With an outstanding track record of forecasting cyclical inflexions, Lakshman isolates the signals that will lead to the next turning point. Filmed on May 22, 2017, in Orlando.

- Source, Real Vision Finance

Ron Paul: Is America Doomed? Are There Any Options Left?

Is America incapable of going back to the "good old days" where we understood what it means to live in a constitutional republic and defended our liberties against all enemies, foreign and domestic? 

A new article from Michael Snyder cites plenty of polling data suggesting a grim future for freedom lovers. But there may be hope for the future after all...

- Source, Ron Paul

Gold Prices Continue Forward As Silver Plays Catch Up

Gold climbed up into the mid $1500s this week as we look at what is next for the precious metals. 

Silver plays catch up pushing up to above $19 lowering the gold to silver ratio. 

We review the price movements of platinum, palladium, and the US Dollar index in relation to gold & silver.

- Source, Golden Rule Radio

Ron Paul: Beware and Prepare, the American Empire is Collapsing

When empires fall, they do not go down gracefully. The collapse is sudden and the consequences are permanent. 

Like the schoolyard bully who is finally defeated, his former victims and enemies revel in his fall. 

The US empire is now teetering on such a collapse. The signs are all around us. 

Aggressive US foreign policy, a self-destructive monetary policy that debases the currency and hides inflation, a monstrous national and individual debt load. 

The writing is on the wall and the wise are preparing. What can we do?

- Source, Ron Paul

Brad Harris: The Official Warning Will Come Too Late

This is an ENCORE presentation of one of our most-watched interviews, which specifically addresses the hazards and survival lessons learned from hurricanes by a former hurricane zone resident. Our prayers go out to all those impacted by Hurricane Dorian.

- Source, Reluctant Preppers

Wolf Street Report: Here’s What I’m Worried About, It’s Not a Recession

A rout in the hyper-inflated bond market can blow up everything.

- Source, The Wolf Report