The Economic Collapse of Venezuela

Venezuela was once the richest country in Latin America.
It has the largest known oil reserves in the world. But today, Venezuela’s democratic institutions and its economy are in shambles.

The country has the highest inflation in the world, making food and medicine inaccessible to most Venezuelans.

Over the last four years, its GDP has fallen 35%, which is a sharper drop than the one seen during the Great Depression in the US.

The country’s murder rate has surpassed that of the most dangerous cities in the world.

These conditions have sparked months of protests against the president, Nicolas Maduro. And it’s easy to see why: the country has become measurably worse since his election in 2013.

- Source, Vox

John Embry: Annual Gold Mining Supply Will Fall Even if Gold Prices Rise Substantially

Jason Burack of Wall St for Main St for Main St interviewed returning guest, Chief Portfolio Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, John Embry. John has over 40 years experience professionally managing money including producing industry leading returns managing a stock portfolio of gold stocks and resources stocks.

- Source, Wall St for Main St

Bitcoin’s going to be worth a trillion dollars soon!

In this episode of the Keiser Report Max and Stacy discuss the Trump administration starting some trade wars - from renegotiating Nafta to looking at China’s treatment of ‘intellectual property’. They also discuss the trillions in unexploited mineral resources in North Korea. 

In the second half Max interviews Dan Collins of TheChinaMoneyReport.com to discuss the ‘Doklam Transgression’ and the ‘Line of Actual Control’. The media has largely ignored the confrontation between India and China but will they notice if a hot war breaks out?

- Source, RT

Rob Kirby Guides Us Over the Crypto Bridge from Fiat Land to Gold & Silver

Rob pulls no punches on the latest developments in the fiat US dollar currency crisis and fall of the American Empire…

Rob Kirby joins Reluctant Preppers do discuss the latest developments on the late stages of the collapse of the American Empire and the fall of the US Dollar.

- Source, Rob Kirby

David Stockman Sees the Swan and It’s Not Black

Don’t Forget About The Red Swan

Given the anti-Trump feeding frenzy, we continue to believe that a Swan is on its way bearing Orange. But if that’s not enough to dissuade the dip buyers, perhaps the impending arrival of the Red Swan will at least give them pause.

The chart below comprises a picture worth thousands of words. It puts the lie to the latest Wall Street belief that the global economy is accelerating and that surgingcorporate profits justify the market’s latest manic rip.

What is actually going on is a short-lived global credit/growth impulse emanating from China. Beijing panicked early last year and opened up the capital expenditure (CapEx) spigots at the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) out of fear that China’s great machine was heading for stall speed at exactly the wrong time.

The 19th national communist party Congress scheduled for late fall of 2017. This every five year event is the single most important happening in the Red Ponzi. This time the event is slated to be the coronation of Xi Jinping as the second coming of Mao.

Beijing was not about to risk an economy fizzling toward a flat line before the Congress. Yet that threat was clearly on the horizon as evident from the dark green line in the chart below which represents total fixed asset investment.

The latter is the spring-wheel of China’s booming economy, but it had dropped from 22% per annum growth rate when Mr. Xi took the helm in 2012 to 10% by early 2016.

There was an eruption as dramatized in the chart. CapEx growth suddenly more than doubled in the one-third of China’s economy that is already saturated in excess capacity. The state owned enterprises (SOE) in steel, aluminum, autos, shipbuilding, chemicals, building equipment and supplies, railway and highway construction etc boomed.

It was as if a switch had been flicked on by Mr. Xi himself, SOE CapEx soared back toward the 25% year-over-year rate by mid-2016, keeping total CapEx hugging the 10% growth line.

However, you cannot grow an economy indefinitely by building pyramids or any other kind of low-return/no return investment – even if the initial growth spurt lasts for years as China’s had.

Ultimately, the illusion of Keynesian spending gets exposed and the deadweight costs of malinvestments and excess capacity exact a heavy toll.

If the investment boom that was financed with reckless credit expansion is not enough, as was the case in China where debt grew from $1 trillion in 1995 to $35 trillion today, the morning-after toll is especially severe and disruptive. This used to be called a “depression.”

China’s propagated spurt in global trade and commodities was artificial and short-term. It was done to flatter China’s rulers at the 19th party congress.

Now that a favorable GDP glide path has been assured, China’s planners and bureaucracy are already back at it trying to find some way to reel in its runaway credit growth and bloated economy before it collapses.

Downside Surprises in China Are Virtually Baked In

The sell-by date has expired on this latest China credit impulse, as evident in the chart below. During the first quarter of this year, total social financing (bank credit plus shadow banking loans) reached the incredible rate of $4 trillion per annum. That’s nearly one-third of China’s entire GDP.

The figure scared the daylights out of leadership in Beijing, who have now moved forcefully to reel in China’s debt machine.

What is coming down the pike is the great China Debt Retrenchment. Expect a global braking motion that will get underway once Mr. Xi dramatically consolidates his power at the 19th party congress.

This has the potential to drastically weaken the global economy – and the impact on corporate profits should not be underestimated.

The Red Swan Has Now Gone Berserk

Half of the world’s GDP growth since the 2008 crisis has been in China, and that, in turn, was purchased by the greatest credit eruption in recorded history.

As China’s nominal GDP was more than doubling from $4.6 trillion in 2008 to $11.2 trillion in 2016, its national leverage ratio soared from 175% of GDP to 300% in less than a decade.

There’s reason to seriously doubt that Beijing can bring the Red Ponzi to a soft landing. It cannot and will not permit the nation’s debt load to quadruple again during the next eight years, meaning that China’s days as the world’s ultimate stimulus machine are over.

The fading of the most recent China growth impulse will soon reveal that most countries, to adapt Warren Buffet’s famous metaphor, have been swimming naked from a fiscal perspective. It has left the world vulnerable to a renewed wave of funding crises as the ECB and other central banks attempt to launch monetary normalization.

In sum, during the last 19 months the Red Ponzi propagated a false upturn in the global economy that is already decisively reversing. This comes at the same time that central banks of the major developed world economies are finally bringing their printing presses to a halt.

The major central bankers have finally recognized that at $22 trillion on central bank balance sheets have become egregiously extended. China is the epicenter of the world’s two decade plunge into central bank monetary fraud and credit explosion. They have deformed and destabilized the very warp and woof of the global economy.

So, yes, even as the Orange Swan stumbles toward the Donald’s White House, there is a Red Swan following closely behind.

- Source, David Stockman

You Are Being Lied To About “Low” Gold Demand

I don’t like to use inflammatory language, such as the title of this article, but the message from the mainstream media about gold demand is misleading.

Yes, coin purchases in North America are down compared to last year (a record-setting year, by the way). It’s been soft at a few other Mints as well, such as Perth.

But Eagle and Kangaroo purchases aren’t the whole market. You and I don’t buy paper gold products, for example, but throw in demand from this part of the industry and a very different picture emerges from the dour headlines you see from mainstream sources.

Let’s face it, some investors are going to opt for paper gold—so if we want an accurate picture of gold demand we have to include all sources. I know this seems obvious, but sometimes journalists favor headlines that are are sensational.

Here is an update on the various segments of gold (and silver) demand from around the world. See if this portrays a different message than the one you’ve been hearing. It might even make you feel emboldened…

Gold ETP Demand: Off the Charts

Add up all the gold exchange-traded products (ETPs) around the world and you’ll find that the first half of the year has been a knockout. Global ETPs (which includes ETFs like GLD) saw inflows of $245 billion in the first six months of 2017, a new and lofty record.

This is a LOT more than the first half of last year. Or most years. Look how it compares to the average level of demand over the past decade.

Keep in mind that as the chart shows, we haven’t got to what is typically the strongest part of the year.

Here’s another way to look at just how robust current demand is for gold ETPs. This chart compares the first half of 2017 to ALL of 2016.

What’s especially impressive is that $245 billion would be the second-largest FULL year amount on record. If the current pace continues, ETP inflows could reach a whopping $500 billion by year end.

This clearly signals that institutional investors—the primary buyers of gold ETPs—see a crucial need to have exposure to gold.

Silver ETFs: Record Holdings (Again)

It’s pretty straightforward: total global silver ETF holdings reached yet another record level last month. There simply has been no letup in investors buying silver ETFs.

This is not the behavior you would see if investors didn’t think there was strong potential in silver.

European Gold ETFs: Can’t Get Enough

Holdings in gold ETFs based in Europe just reached a new record level.

Demand for gold is so strong in Europe that these ETFs represented 76% of all net global inflows in the second quarter.

It’s rather obvious that European investors see an ever-growing need to have exposure to gold right now.

China: More Physical, Please

Chinese gold ETFs saw net outflows in the first half of 2017, but coin and bar demand was up a remarkable 56% over last year. Total gold consumption grew almost 10%, and physical withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange in July were the 3rd highest ever for that month.

The China Gold Association said that “Physical gold is playing an increasingly important role in Chinese residents’ investment portfolio… gold is broadly favored by investors as a store of wealth, as global markets become more fragile, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, and increasing geopolitical uncertainty.”

The Association estimates that demand for the year may exceed 1,000 tonnes, which would be the highest level in four years. Gold production in the country, by the way, is down 6% so far, similar to what is happening almost everywhere.

As for silver, customs data shows that 1,984 tonnes were imported in the first half of the year, 37% more than last year. It was also the highest level of imports for the first six months since 2010.

Most headlines I see about China reference lower demand, but that is clearly not the full picture.

India, Turkey, Vietnam: Don’t Forget Us

Gold demand in India was up 26%, the third consecutive quarter of higher volumes. And imports in July more than doubled.

Retail investment in Turkey has surged, hitting its highest level since 2013.

Gold demand was flat in Vietnam, but the government just introduced a measure to remove much of the red tape surrounding gold bars. As such, state banks will soon be able to import gold bullion directly, which will likely lead to a spike in demand.

There is no letup in interest for gold in these countries.

Physical Demand: Resurging

And don’t look now, but the US Mint just reported that silver coin sales were up big last month, from 986,000 Eagles sold in June to 2.27 million in July, a jump of 130%. Overall sales are still subdued for gold, after 2016’s banner year, but silver sales last month were actually 65.7% higher than July 2016.

Meanwhile, UK dealer BullionVault reported an interesting anecdote about demand in early July: it said its record gold holdings are now so high that they could make more than 10 million 18-carat wedding rings, or supply the microchips for 1.5 billion iPhones.

Which Message Do You Listen To?

If an investor gages the status of the gold market by popular headlines, they might come to the wrong conclusion. And take the wrong action. They might assume interest in gold is on the decline, or that the price may fall, or maybe even sell their holdings.

But if global gold demand is actually much stronger than what is generally reported, the opposite conclusions are drawn: more people than ever want to hold gold right now, and the price will ultimately head higher once the fears those investors have begin to play out. And they’d take the opposite action: continue to denominate their savings in physical metal.

Based on a look at the total gold market, the latter message is clearly more accurate.

As such, I encourage you to do what we’re doing: accumulate gold coins and gold bars, while prices are subdued, premiums are low, and supply is plentiful. Someday, every one of those factors will be just the opposite—higher metals prices, expensive premiums, and sporadic availability.

Regardless of mainstream headlines, don’t lie to yourself about how much gold you’ll need or what’s ahead for the precious metals market.

Gold Price Rally Imminent: New MSM Hit Piece Just Out

Only Missing One Key Component…

Mainstream Media is out with a hit piece on gold today, and Market Watch wants you to know it’s gonna get ugly in gold right from the title:

Gold price on pace to fall the most in 6 weeks after strong data, easing geopolitical tension

The usual suspects are out in full force.WE have excellent retail sales coming in, a more warn, welcoming geo-political landscape on the world stage, and it seems like, other than a few big names losing it, the United States is looking to heal itself from the Virginia violence over the weekend.

Therefore, following cue coming off a strong week for gold prices (and silver prices) last week, we get things like this from the article:

Gold futures, which retreated for a second straight session early Tuesday, were on pace for their steepest daily drop in about six weeks as data on retail sales and U.S. manufacturing came in better than expected

On Tuesday, tensions between Pyongyang and Washington saw further cooling as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un announced that he wouldn’t launch a ballistic-missile attack on the U.S. territory Guam

Solid economic reports early Tuesday, however, bolstered appetite for assets considered risky. A gauge of New York-area manufacturing soared to 25.2, marking a three-year high in August, a reading on retail sales surged 0.6% in July, while readings for June were increased to 0.3% from 0.2%. Meanwhile, a report on import prices showed an increase of 0.1% in July.

Another factor yanking precious metals lower was a steadily rising U.S. dollar.

We need not tell anybody here at SD how the dollar is doing, and this chart pretty much speaks for itself, but for the sake of welcoming new readers into the community, well, yeah:

Silverbugs know what that channel means, and it means. Good luck with that strong dollar argument.

- Source, SD Bullion

Paradigm Shifts and Trend Reversals

Max & Stacy discuss Obamacare death spirals and towns left to die post-trade deals. In the second half, Max continues his interview with Gerald Celente of TrendsResearch.com about paradigm shifts: from cryptocurrencies to electric cars.

- Source, RT

Bitcoin Skyrockets Over $4000 in Sneak Peak of What Is Coming to Gold & Silver

While many of the largest cryptocurrencies are fading modestly this morning, Bitcoin is holding on to dramatic agains which saw the largest virtual currency spike to as high as $4190 as Yen, Yuan, and Won trading activity dominated volumes.

Bitcoin Cash remains in 4th place overall by market cap but Bitcoin is the only currency higher among the top 5 this morning.

Soaring past $4000…

As CoinTelegraph reports, the trading of Bitcoin in Japanese yen has accounted for almost 46 percent of total trade volume worldwide. The trading of Bitcoin in US dollar accounted for around 25 percent, while the trading of Bitcoin in South Korean won and Chinese yuan accounted for approximately 12 percent each.

Additionally, anticipated demand is being priced in after VanEck filed for an ‘active strategy’ Bitcoin ETF:
The Fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing, under normal circumstances, in U.S. exchange-traded bitcoin-linked derivative instruments (“Bitcoin Instruments”) and pooled investment vehicles and exchange-traded products that provide exposure to bitcoin (together with Bitcoin Instruments, “Bitcoin Investments”).

The Fund is an actively managed exchange-traded fund (“ETF”) and should not be confused with one that is designed to track the performance of a specified index.

The Fund’s strategy seeks to provide total return by actively managing the Fund’s investments in Bitcoin Investments.

Bitcoin’s solid performance in early August reflected that of gold’s amidst the selloff in stocks and bonds around the world due to the growing apprehensions over North Korea’s nuclear threat.

And the latest moves this weekend in the crypto world suggest gold will open well north of $1300 tonight.

- Source, Zero Hedge

Jeff Clark: More Reasons Than Ever to Own Gold and Silver

Our old friend Jeff Clark joined us today for a close look at the precious metals markets. Jeff, formerly of Casey Research, is now with GoldSilver.com, a place that suits him quite well. While the more things change, the more they stay the same, this time really is different. The political system has no ability to address and solve the current economic problems. In fact, the system is trying to do the opposite, by denying their existence and refusing to deal with existential issues. If that's not a reason to own gold and/or silver, then you need to rethink everything now.

- Source, FSN

Michael Pento interviews John Tamny: "Who Needs The FED?"

Michael Pento interview John Tamny. John is the Political Economy editor at Forbes, senior economic adviser to Toreador Research & Trading, editor of RealClearMarkets.com (RCM) and regular on Forbes on Fox. He just wrote a book "Who Needs the Fed". In this interview John offers a unique and fresh perspective on why the Fed is un-necessary – the conclusion being something he and I both agree on.

- Source, Pentonomics

Bitcoin Buying Binge Continues, Tops $3400 For First Time As Fork Fears Subside

Bitcoin, and Bitcoin Cash, are both higher this morning as the former surges above $3400 for the first time.

Ethereum is also running higher as analysts predict a double for ether and $5000 Bitcoin price in 2018.

This morning's surge follows news over the weekend of a mysterious trader 'Spoofy' manipulating Bitcoin prices.

It is clear that post-Fork fears have now been erased:

“The miner-orchestrated hard fork has had limited traction and will not impact the price or future development of bitcoin,” said Aurelien Menant, chief executive officer of Gatecoin Ltd., a cryptocurrency exchange in Hong Kong, referring to the split.

“The activation of SegWit is a significant milestone in bitcoin’s technological evolution.”

As CoinTelegraph reports, Standpoint Research founder and analyst Ronnie Moas has previously projected that the digital currency Bitcoin will reach a price of $5,000 per token in 2018 and $50,000 in 10 years.

In his most recent interview with CNBC, he also claimed that rival currency Ethereum is also likely to increase by twofold to reach $400 during the year.

In his report published in late July 2017, Moas claimed that the cryptocurrencies will sustain their solid performance and steal some shares of other assets like stocks, bonds, fiat currencies and other precious metals in the market.

"I think investors should take a shot on this and hold for a few years. If you lose a few bucks, at least you took a shot," he said.

"In life, you miss every shot that you do not take. It will probably be more upsetting to watch it (from the sidelines) go up another 1,000 percent."

Aside from the two leading virtual currencies, Moas also forecast that the price of the digital currency Litecoin will increase by twofold to $80 per coin.

However, Bitcoin's teething troubles may not be over yet...

“The scaling debate is not over yet,” Menant added.

“The promised 2 MB block size increase due in November in accordance with the SegWit2x agreement may still be rejected by certain stakeholders.”

- Source, Zero Hedge

Peter Schiff and Max Keiser Bitcoin Drama

In this final episode of the Keiser Report from Freedom Fest in Las Vegas, Max and Stacy encounter Peter Schiff in the halls of the convention center and challenge him on bitcoin. Max continues his interview with bitcoin entrepreneur Charlie Shrem to discuss the latest drama and innovation in the cryptocurrency space.

- Source, Max Keiser

John Rubino: The Perfect Crash Indicator Is Flashing Red

What’s the last big toy you buy when things have been good for a really long time and you already have all the other toys? An RV, of course. A dubious thing to own if you already have a house, but when the good times seem likely to roll on forever, why the hell not?

And what’s the first thing you sell when you lose your job and your stocks are tanking? That very same RV. Which makes new RV sales a useful indicator of our place in the business cycle.

What does it say now? Here you go:

Notice the mini-spike in the late 1990s and the major spike in mid-2000s, both of which were followed by corrections. Now note the mega-spike from 2010 and 2016.

And how are things going so far this year? Well, the space is on fire:

‘The RV space is on fire’: Millennials expected to push sales to record highs (CNBC) – RV shipments are expected to surge to their highest level ever, according to a forecast from the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association. It would be the industry’s eighth consecutive year of gains.
Thor Industries and Winnebago Industries posted huge growth in their most recent earnings report.

Those shipments are accelerating, and should grow even more next year, the group said. Sales in the first quarter rose 11.7 percent from 2016.

Much of the growth can be attributed to strong sales of trailers, smaller units that can be towed behind an SUV or minivan, which dominate the RV market. The industry also is drawing in new customers.

As the economy has strengthened since the Great Recession, and consumer confidence improved, sales have picked up, said Kevin Broom, director of media relations for RVIA.

Two of the major players in the industry, Thor Industries and Winnebago Industries, both manufacturers of RVs, reported huge growth in their most recent earnings report. Thor saw sales skyrocket 56.9 percent to $2.02 billion fromlast year. Winnebago’s surged 75.1 percent last quarter to $476.4 million.

Gerrick Johnson, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets, attributed much of that growth to acquisitions. Thor bought Jayco, then the No. 3 player in the industry, last June; Winnebago bought Grand Design in October.

Thor stock has experienced strong growth over the past year of almost 40 percent. Winnebago tells an even better story: Its shares are up 56 percent over the past 12 months.

“They’ve done massively well because they’ve made massively creative acquisitions,” said Johnson. “Wall Street didn’t realize how creative those deals were. Each quarter they came through. The RV space is on fire, and the demand metrics are quite positive.”

What we have here is another classic short. During the past couple of recessions, RV stocks plunged as everyone came to their senses and stopped buying $60,000 motel rooms. Based on the above chart that’s a pretty good bet to repeat going forward. Let’s revisit this play in a couple of years.

- Source

US Dollar Hit AGAIN! Gold & Silver Higher. Stock Market Ripe To Fall.

After reviewing charts, discussing movement in charts and why they act the way they do I have been trying to bring some reason to the table for the past few days as it seems the “markets” may have reached a turning point. That is a dangerous statement because as most of you know and understand these “markets” are 100% rigged and the bullion banksters can move them around at will.

I wrote a couple of days ago that Thursday and Friday we needed to watch the action in several areas and pointing out several indicators that should be very positive for both gold and silver. Below is even more support for everything we have been saying since the first quarter of 2017. This should be a great year for the precious metals and now we are moving into the time of year when paper gold usually moves the most for the entire year!! Hold on tight as the next couple of months could be very exciting or they could be very ordinary. If history is any indicator we should be set up for a great autumn. Only time will tell.

The Federal Reserve Note (FRN) has been moving to the down side for several months and the past 24 hours is no different hitting a two year low...

- Source, Sprott Money