Friday, March 27, 2015

Odds High Hyperinflation Begins In 2015


John Williams, of ShadowStats.com, says the Fed has given a false sense of security but did not fix the problems that led to the last meltdown. Williams warns, “People say everything is fine again—nonsense. You had a panic in 2008. . . . The system was on the brink of collapse. The Fed and the federal government did everything in their power to prevent it. They pushed things into the future, but they didn’t do anything of substance to address the underlying problems.” So, are we going to have another panic? Williams says, “Yes, and that is the type of thing that can break at any time, and you just don’t have the options you had in 2008 for buying time into the future.” Williams adds, “The odds are high you are going to see the beginnings of hyperinflation this year.”

- Source, USA Watchdog

Sunday, March 22, 2015

David Stockman - The Global Economy Has Entered The Crack-Up Phase


We’re in the crack-up phase. I think there are four big characteristics of that which are going to shape the way the economy and the markets unfold as we go forward.

You’re going to see increasing desperation and extreme central bank financial repressionbecause they have gotten themselves painted so deep into the corner that they're lost and desperate. Almost week by week, we have another central bank – this week, it was Sweden – lowering their money market rates into negative territory. The Swiss Bank is already there, the Denmark Bank is there, the ECB is there on the deposit rate, the Bank of Japan’s there. All of the central banks of the world now are desperately driving interest rates into negative territory. I believe that they’re lost; they're in a race to the bottom whether they acknowledge it or not. The central bank of China can’t sit still much longer when the reminbi has appreciated something like 30% against the Japanese yet because of the massive bubble of monetary expansion that’s being created there. So that’s the first thing going on. Central banks out of control in a race to the bottom, sliding by the seat of their pants, making up really incoherent theories as they go.

The second thing is increasing market disorder and volatility. In the last three months, the stock market has behaved like a drunken sailor. But it’s really just a bunch of robots and day traders that have traded chart points until somebody can figure out what is happening directionally in the world. It has nothing to do with information or incoming data about the real world. We have today the 10-year German bond trading at 29.5 basis points. Well, the German economy’s been reasonably strong, fueling the Chinese boom. That export boom is over. The Chinese economy is faltering. Germany is going to have its own problems. But clearly, 29 basis points on a 10-year is irrational, even in the case of Germany, to say nothing of the 160 available today on the 10-year for Spain and Italy. Both of those countries are in deep, deep fiscal decline. There is no obvious way for them to dig out of the debt trap that they’re in. It’s going to get worse over time. There’s huge risk in those bonds, especially because there’s no guarantee that the EU will remain intact or the euro will survive. Why in the world would anybody in their right mind be owning Italian debt at 160 other than the fact that they’re front-running the massive purchases that Draghi has promised and the Germans have acquiesced to over the next year or two. But that only kicks the can down the road. One of these days, the central banks are going to falter and the market is going to reset violently to prices that reflect the true risk on all this sovereign debt and the pretty cloudy outlook that’s ahead for the world market.

We now have something like four trillion worth of sovereign debt spread over Japanese issues, the major European countries that are trading at negative yields. Obviously, that is one, irrational and second, completely unsustainable. And yet, it’s another characteristic of what I call these disorderly markets. Investment is now coming home to roost. It will be driving a huge deflation of commodity and industrial prices worldwide. You can see that in iron ore, now barely holding $60 from a peak of $200. Obviously, it’s seen in the whole oil patch. Look at the Baltic Dry Index. That is a measure, one, of faltering demand for shipments and, two, massive overbuilding of bulk carrier capacity as a result of this central bank driven boom that we’ve had in the last 10 to 20 years. So that is going to be ripping through the financial system, the global economy, in ways that we’ve never before experienced. And so therefore, in ways that are hard to predict what all, you know, the ramifications and cascading effects will be. But clearly, it’s something that we haven’t seen in modern times or ever before – the degree of over investment, excess capacity, and everything from iron ore mines to dry vault carriers, aluminum plants, steel mills, and on down the line.

And then, finally, clearly, demand has run smack up against peak debt -- I think that’s the right word for it. We had a tremendous study come out in the last week or so from McKinsey, who do a pretty good job of trying to calculate, track and total up the amount of credit outstanding, public and private, in the world. We’re now at the $200 Trillion threshold. That’s up from only about $140 Trillion at the time of the crisis. So we’ve had a $60 Trillion expansion worldwide of debt just since 2008. During that same period, though, the GDP of the world saw a little more than $15 trillion from $55 or mid-$50s, roughly, to $70 Trillion. So we’ve generated, because of central bank money printing and all of this unprecedented monetary stimulus, we’ve generated something like $60 Trillion of new debt in the world and have barely gotten $15-17 Trillion of new GDP for all of that effort. And I think that is a measure of why the fundamental era is changing. That the boom is over and the crackup is under way when you see that kind of minimal yield from the vast amount of new debt that has been generated.

Now I’d only wrap this up by calling attention to the fact that within that global total of $200 Trillion, the numbers from China are even more startling. At the time of the crisis, let’s go back to 2000, China had $2 Trillion of credit outstanding. It’s now $28 Trillion. So we’ve had just massive 14X growth in 14 years. There’s nothing like that in recorded history, nor is there any plausible reason to believe that an economy, which is basically under a command-and-control system that is run from the top down to the party cadres, could possibly create $26 Trillion in new debt in that period of time without massive inefficiencies in waste and mistakes everywhere within the systems, especially since they have no markets. They have no feedback mechanisms. It all comes cascading down from the top and everybody lies to the next party above them. And I think the system is irrationally out of control.

In any event, my point was that at the time of the 2008 crisis, China had allegedly – if you believe their numbers, which no one really should – but as reported, they had $5 Trillion worth of GDP. It’s now $10. So they’ve gained $5 Trillion of GDP. Their debt at the time of the crisis was $7 Trillion, now it’s $28. So the debt is up more than $20 Trillion while the GDP is up just $5 Trillion. These are extreme unsustainable deformations, if I can use that word, that just scream out, “Danger ahead. Mayhem has happened.” And the unwinding of this and the resolution of this is not going to be pretty.

- Source, Peak Prosperity

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Lever up or down, global debt still rises


The world is more indebted than in the financial crisis. Richard Dobbs, director of the McKinsey Global Institute, talks to Ralph Atkins, capital markets editor at the Financial Times, about the risks this raises and the creative responses being tested.

- Source, FT

Saturday, March 14, 2015

‘Less chocolate in a bar, price stays the same: Pure deflation?’


Afshin Rattansi goes underground on the impact of inflation in international relations. Pippa Malmgren, former U.S. Presidential policy advisor, warns that the UK and US are using inflation to default on their debts, and their principal creditors, Russia and China, are making grabs for assets in the face of that uncertainty and risk. Kevin Courtney, Deputy General Secretary of the National Union of Teachers, warns academies are failing to increase school standards and let vested interests into the system. With further talks on TTIP this week, we look further into what damage could be wreaked on the NHS if the free trade agreement goes through. And Iain Duncan Smith plans yet more cuts to benefits – as research shows that even with greater austerity, Tory welfare spending will be no lower than when they came into power.

- Source, Russia Today

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Dr. Marc Faber - Employment Numbers Are BS


John Manfreda and Jason Burack of Wall St for Main St had on returning guest Editor and Publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/, Dr. Marc Faber.

Jason and John ask Dr. Faber about interest rates, financial repression, ECB QE, Swiss depegging, Greece leaving the Euro, the fake employment numbers, Asia, China, Gold and Gold Mining.


Sunday, March 8, 2015

Thursday, March 5, 2015

The Cancer Which Started In The US Financial System Has Spread Globally


"The US Dollar payment system is essentially a system for looting. This, Globalization and Neo-liberal economics are tools of American economic imperialism. Countries are beginning to realize this. The looting of countries by American imperialism has now reached the point where it is turning on itself - Greece for example."

- Source, Gold Silver