Gold and silver went up the dollar went down, +$33 and +$0.53 -64mg gold and -
Of course, two factors make this very interesting. One is that the speculators use leverage, and they can move the price around. At least for a while. The other is that the fundamentals change. There is no guarantee that the prices of the metals will reach the fundamental price of a given day. Think of the fundamentals as gravity, not the strongest force in the system but inexorable, tugging every day.
This week, the fundamentals of both metals moved, though not together. We will take a look at that below, but first, the price and ratio charts.
The Prices of Gold and Silver
Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. It didn’t move much this week.
The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price
Here is the gold graph.
The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price
The scarcity (i.e. the cobasis, the red line) is in a gentle rising trend for about six months. This week, the cobasis was down slightly. Not a surprise given the (relatively) big price move of +$33. Nor does it appear to break the trend.
Our calculated fundamental price of gold is at $1,301, just above the market price.
Now let’s look at silver.
The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price
In silver, it’s much harder to say that there is an uptrend in the cobasis. Our indicator of scarcity is at the same level it was in October. Back then, the price of silver was $17.60 and on Thursday it was just about 90 cents higher.
The fundamental price back then was just under $15. Now it’s just under $16.50. This happens to be down about 40 cents this week.
With the fundamental of gold rising, and that of silver falling, it’s not surprising that the fundamental gold-silver ratio is up to a bit over 79.
- Source, Keith Weiner via the Sprott Money Blog